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765 NOUS42 KWNO 291327 ADMNFD SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NOAA/NWS/NCEP WASHINGTON DC 1315 UTC WED OCT 29 2003 291315Z...THE 12Z ETA RUN STARTED ON TIME WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF NOAM UPA DATA...RAOBS... ZBZ/78583 - PURGE HGTS/TEMPS 200MBS UP /70M TOO HIGH/ ACM/78866 - PURGE ALL HGTS 700MBS UP /NON-HYDROSTATIC/ MKJ/91376 - 10145..UNFAVORABLE WX CONDS OKX/72501 - NOT/AVAIL FOR ETA FYI... A LARGE X17 SOLAR FLARE OCCURRED BETWEEN 10Z AND 11Z THIS MORNING. ANY MINOR DEGRADATION IN SATELLITE PIX TONIGHT IS THE RESULT OF AN ONGOING PROTON STORM IN THE IONOSPHERE FROM THIS FLARE. ACCORDING TO NCEP/S SEC...SPACE ENVIRONMENT CENTER IN BOULDER...THE PROTON STORM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AFTER 29/12Z AND PEAK OUT AROUND 18Z AS THE PLASMA FROM THE FLARE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE IONOSPHERE. SEC EXPECTS STRONG (G3) TO SEVERE (G4) GEOMAGNETIC STORM ACTIVITY...WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF G5, (EXTREME) GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AS THE PLASMA "FRONT" MOVES INTO THE IONOSPHERE...(AROUND 17Z OR SO). SEC WEB SITE...HTTP;//WWW.SEC.NOAA.GOV/ALERTS/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE) WHAT THIS MEANS IS THERE COULD BE ELECTRICAL GRID PROBLEMS AND PERHAPS OUTAGES OF CELL PHONES AND SATELLITE UPLINKING/DOWNLINKING. THERE MAY BE A NEED TO GO TO BACKUP POWER OR GO TO BACKUP COMMS DURING THESE TIMES. WHITMORE/SDM/NCO/NCEP NNNN ---------- End Forwarded Message ----------
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