20030623: public comments-

NOUS41 KWBC 191526
PNSWSH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...COMMENT REQUEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2003

TO        FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER
         WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS
         WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS...
         NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
         /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...AND NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM      ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
         CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION

SUBJECT   CURRENTLY SOLICITING PUBLIC COMMENTS BY JULY 18 2003 ON
         PROPOSED PROBABILITY FORMAT CHANGES TO ONE-MONTH AND
         THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS

WE ARE SOLICITING YOUR COMMENTS BY JULY 18 2003 ON PLANS TO
CHANGE THE PROBABILITY FORMATS ON THE ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH
OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/.

PLEASE SEND COMMENTS ON THE FOLLOWING PROPOSAL BY ACCESSING THE
WEB PAGE LISTED BELOW /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/
comment-form-ll.html


OR WRITE TO

    ROBERT LEFFLER AND BARBARA MAYES
    NOAA/NWS CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION W/OS4
    1325 EAST-WEST HIGHWAY
    SILVER SPRING MD 20910


BACKGROUND

CPC EXPRESSES THE OUTLOOKS IN A 3-CATEGORY PROBABILISTIC FORMAT
AS THE CHANCE THE MEAN TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
PERIOD WILL FALL INTO THE MOST LIKELY OF THREE CLASSES: ABOVE...
BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL.  CPC DEFINES THE CLASSES AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EQUALLY LIKELY:  THE TOP 10 CASES OF A THIRTY
YEAR RECORD DEFINE THE ABOVE CATEGORY /A/...THE MIDDLE 10 CASES
DEFINE THE NORMAL CATEGORY /N/... AND THE BOTTOM 10 CASES DEFINE
THE BELOW CATEGORY /B/.  FOR AREAS WHERE A FAVORED CLASS CANNOT
BE DETERMINED...CPC WILL INDICATE THOSE AREAS WITH "EC".


PROPOSED CHANGE

FOR THE MOST LIKELY CLASS...CPC WOULD INDICATE THE TOTAL
PROBABILITY INSTEAD OF THE PROBABILITY ANOMALY FROM THE 33
PERCENT CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE.  THE CONTOURS OF A FAVORED CATEGORY
WOULD BE 33+ PERCENT...40 PERCENT...50 PERCENT...AND HIGHER
VALUES IN INCREMENTS OF 10 PERCENT.

CPC WOULD STILL INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY CLASS WITH SOLID CONTOUR
LINES ON THE MAPS AND LABEL THE CENTERS OF MAXIMUM PROBABILITY
ANOMALY WITH THE LETTERS A...N...OR B TO DENOTE THE MOST LIKELY
CLASS.  FOR AREAS WHERE A FAVORED CLASS CANNOT BE DETERMINED...
CPC WILL STILL INDICATE THOSE AREAS WITH "EC" AND NOT HAVE
CONTOURS.


THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS PROPOSAL

1. THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK MAPS FOR CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND ALASKA

LEAD TIME IS INDICATED BY THE NUMBER IN THE WMO HEADING AND LAST
LETTER IN THE AWIPS ID. /I.E. 01 AND A HAVE A LEAD TIME OF 0.5
MONTH... 02 AND B HAVE A LEAD TIME OF 1.5 MONTHS... ETC./

       TEMPERATURE                   PRECIPITATION
WMO HEADING       AWIPS ID        WMO HEADING         AWIPS ID
PTIW/01-13/ KWBC  RBGLT/A-M/ PEIW/01-13/ KWBC    RBGLE/A-M/


ON THE WEB /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/


2. ONE-MONTH OUTLOOK MAPS FOR CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND ALASKA

 TEMPERATURE                         PRECIPITATION
WMO HEADING       AWIPS ID        WMO HEADING        AWIPS ID
PTIV98 KWNC       RBG9MT          PEIV98 KWNC        RBG9ME


ON THE WEB /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/

  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/


3. ONE-MONTH AND THREE MONTH HAWAIIAN TEXT OUTLOOKS
/TOTAL PROBABILITY FOR MOST LIKELY CLASS FOR SELECTED CITIES/

WMO HEADING       AWIPS ID
FXHW40 KWBC       PMDHCO


ON THE WEB /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/
fxhw40.html


THIS NOTICE AND OTHER NOTIFICIATION MESSAGES CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/

    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm

THIS PARTICULAR MESSAGE IS LISTED AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE...ABOVE
THE SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE AND TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE
BOX.

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