20000412: temp prob-ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC (fwd)

• To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Subject: 20000412: temp prob-ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC (fwd)
• From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
• Date: Wed, 12 Apr 2000 12:21:42 -0600

316 
NOUS41 KWBC 121749
PNSWSH
  
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 00-43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
145 PM EDT WED APR 12 2000
  
TO:       NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEES...NOAAPORT
           SUBSCRIBERS... NWS EMPLOYEES...AND OTHER NWS CUSTOMERS
  
FROM:     ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
           CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION
  
SUBJECT:  NEW APPARENT TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY OUTLOOKS FOR
           HEAT...EFFECTIVE JUNE 1 2000
  
ON THURSDAY...JUNE 1 2000...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/
WILL START PROVIDING APPARENT TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY OUTLOOKS
FOR HEAT. THE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED DAILY AROUND 4:00 PM
EASTERN LOCAL TIME. THE OUTLOOKS WILL EMPHASIZE DAILY MEAN
APPARENT TEMPERATURE RATHER THAN MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH CPC ALSO WILL PROVIDE THE EXPECTED VALUE
OF THE MAXIMUM AT APPROXIMATELY 200 LOCATIONS. 
  
BECAUSE HEALTH RISKS VARY ENORMOUSLY FROM AREA TO AREA...CPC WILL
ISSUE FORECASTS OF PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR APPARENT
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THREE DIFFERENT THRESHOLDS. THESE WILL BE
OVERLAID ON ISOLINES OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL PROBABILITIES.
CPC CHOSE THE THRESHOLD TEMPERATURE VALUES BASED ON WHEN
CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE WOULD BE LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT HEALTH
RISKS FOR A NUMBER OF THE MOST VULNERABLE CITIES.
  
IN ADDITION...BECAUSE VULNERABILITY INCREASES WITH DURATION OF
THE HEAT WAVE...RISKS FOR EXCEEDING THE LOWER THRESHOLDS ARE FOR
DURATIONS LONGER THAN ONE DAY. THESE NEW PRODUCTS WILL CONSIST OF
MAPS OF PROBABILITY ANOMALIES OF DAILY MEAN APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FOR THRESHOLDS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 85F... 90F... OR 95F FOR
EACH OF THE 3-7-... 6-10-... AND 8-14-DAY FORECAST PERIODS. THE
FORECASTS WILL BE FOR DIFFERENT MINIMUM NUMBERS OF DAYS WITHIN
THE 5 OR 7 DAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST - NAMELY 3...2 AND 1 DAYS -
RESPECTIVELY - WHEN THE THRESHOLDS ARE EQUALED OR EXCEEDED.  
  
MORE SPECIFICALLY...FOR THE 3-7-... 6-10- AND 8-14-DAY OUTLOOK
PERIODS - THE NEW PRODUCTS PREDICT THE PERCENT CHANCE - IN EXCESS
OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCE - OF EQUALING OR EXCEEDING THE
FOLLOWING CRITERIA:
  
A.   DAILY AVERAGE APPARENT TEMPERATURE EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN
      85F THREE OR MORE DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
  
B.   DAILY AVERAGE APPARENT TEMPERATURE EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN
      90F TWO OR MORE DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
  
C.   DAILY AVERAGE APPARENT TEMPERATURE EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN
      95F ONE OR MORE DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
  
THE WMO HEADINGS AND AWIPS IDENTIFIERS FOR THE NINE CHARTS ARE AS
FOLLOWS:
                     
AV. APPARENT TEMP.  3-7 DAY        6-10 DAY       8-14 DAY
  
CRITERIA A          PTAM90 KWNC    PTAS90 KWNC    PTAT90 KWNC
/85F+ FOR 3+DAYS/   RBGHI1         RBGHI4         RBGHI7
  
CRITERIA B          PTAM95 KWNC    PTAS95 KWNC    PTAT95 KWNC
/90F+ FOR 2+DAYS/   RBGHI2         RBGHI5         RBGHI8
  
CRITERIA C          PTAM00 KWNC    PTAS00 KWNC    PTAT00 KWNC
/95F+ FOR 1+DAY/    RBGHI3         RBGHI6         RBGHI9
  
NOTE - THE NUMBERS WITHIN THE WMO HEADINGS DO NOT COINCIDE WITH 
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS.
  
THESE NINE CHARTS WILL BE ISSUED OVER AWIPS...NOAAPORT...AND THE
CPC INTERNET SITE - HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV - USE LOWER CASE
  
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...CONTACT
  
NOAA/NWS
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - W/NP51
5200 AUTH RD.
CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746-4304
  
OR E-MAIL CPC THROUGH THEIR WEB SITE.
  
THIS AND OTHER NOTIFICATIONS ARE ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.NWS.NOAA/GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM    /USE LOWER CASE/
  
END


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