MODEL ASSESSMENT DISCUSSION FROM NCEP/HPC

• To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Subject: MODEL ASSESSMENT DISCUSSION FROM NCEP/HPC
• From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
• Date: 10/21/1999 2:48 PM

 Additional information (WMO heading) in 2nd to last paragraph:
 
 THIS PRODUCT HAS BEEN PRODUCED ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS FOR
 SEVERAL MONTHS AND DISTRIBUTED ON AFOS AND AWIPS AS NFDPMDHMD AND UNDER THE
WMO 
HEADING FXUS10 KWNH  AND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THAT IDENTIFIER AND WMO HEADING. 


______________________________ Reply Separator _________________________________
Author:  Gaudencio Rivera at W-OM14


     FYI...THE MESSAGE BELOW WAS TRANSMITTED OVER AFOS/NWWS/FOS THIS 
     AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE POSTED ON THE WEB SHOWN ON THE LAST PARAGRAPH 
     OF THE MESSAGE AND IT SHOULD ALSO GO TO AWIPS.   GR
 
 
 
     -------------------------------------------------------
ZCZC WSHPNSNMC ALL
TTAA00 KWSH DDHHMM
 
PUBLIC INFO. STATEMENT...TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 99-16 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT THU OCT 21 1999
 
ATTENTION:     ALL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ NATIONAL
               WEATHER WIRE SERVICES /NWWS/ FAMILY OF SERVICES 
               /FOS/ OTHER NWS CUSTOMERS
 
FROM:          THERESE Z. PIERCE...CHIEF...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
               SERVICES
 
SUBJECT:       MODEL ASSESSMENT DISCUSSION FROM NCEP/HPC 
 
     IN RESPONSE TO NUMEROUS REQUESTS FROM FIELD FORECASTERS, THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER (HPC), PART OF THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE'S NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION, 
WILL MAKE OPERATIONAL A TEXT PRODUCT CALLED THE MODEL ASSESSMENT 
DISCUSSION BEGINNING DECEMBER 5, 1999.  THIS NARRATIVE WILL 
PROVIDE FIELD FORECASTERS AND OTHER CUSTOMERS WITH INFORMATION 
CONCERNING THE PAST AND EXPECTED NEAR TERM (48 HOUR) PERFORMANCE 
OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS AVAILABLE TO NWS FORECASTERS.
 
     THE DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AROUND 0530 AND
1730 UTC AND WILL INCLUDE AN ASSESSMENT OF THE FOLLOWING:  THE 
QUALITY OF THE INITIALIZATION OF THE NCEP MODELS (NGM, ETA, AND 
AVN), KNOWN BIASES IMPACTING EACH MODEL, MODEL TRENDS, 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS, AND A DISCUSSION CONCERNING WHICH 
MODEL FORECAST IS PREFERRED BY HPC FORECASTERS FOR DIFFERENT 
GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS.  THE CONTENT OF THIS NARRATIVE WILL BE BASED 
ON THE EXPERIENCE OF HPC FORECASTERS IN INTERPRETING MODEL 
GUIDANCE AND THE AVAILABLE MODEL ASSESSMENT TOOLS INCLUDING 
RECENT VERIFICATION STATISTICS FOR EACH MODEL.  FORECASTER 
EXPERIENCE CONCERNING KNOWN MODEL BIASES WILL BE AUGMENTED BY 
COORDINATION BETWEEN THE HPC AND NCEP'S ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING 
CENTER (EMC).  INFORMATION CONCERNING MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL 
BE DERIVED FROM DATA COLLECTED BY THE NCEP SENIOR DUTY 
METEOROLOGIST AND BY COMPARISON OF MODEL FIELDS WITH OBSERVED 
DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 
     THIS PRODUCT HAS BEEN PRODUCED ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS FOR
SEVERAL MONTHS AND DISTRIBUTED ON AFOS AND AWIPS AS PMDHMD AND 
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THAT IDENTIFIER.  IT IS AVAILABLE AT THE HPC 
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/PMDHMD.HTML 
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT MR. DAVID REYNOLDS, CHIEF 
OF HPC'S FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH AT 301-763-8000 EXT 7317 OR 
DREYNOLDS@xxxxxxxxxxxxx, OR MR. EDWIN DANAHER, CHIEF OF HPC'S 
DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING BRANCH AT 301-763-8000 EXT 7354 OR 
EDANAHER@xxxxxxxxxxxxx. 
 
     THIS AND ALL OTHER PENDING NWS SERVICE CHANGE NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE ON THE NWS OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY'S HOME PAGE IN THE 
NOTIFICATION SECTION.  THE ADDRESS /IN LOWER CASE/ OF THE 
NOTIFICATION SECTION IS: 
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
 
END
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