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ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE...PART 3 OF 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EST WED DEC 21 1994
TO: ALL NWS OFFICES AND NWS EMPLOYEES
FROM: BARRY REICHENBAUGH, OFFICE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: INFORMATION FOR INQUIRIES ON THE NEW CLIMATE OUTLOOKS
PART 3 OF A 7-PART MESSAGE
...POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF THE NEW LONG-LEAD CLIMATE OUTLOOKS...
Power Companies may potentially use outlooks to anticipate future
changes in demand, plan future power "trading" with other power
companies, and improve operating efficiencies (keeping costs down for
power consumers).
Agribusiness may be able to apply the long-lead climate outlooks to
their most urgent climate-related concerns, such as spring
precipitation, summer temperatures and winter temperatures.
Agribusiness may benefit by using the new products to make decisions
on what crops to plant and when to plant them.
Numerous businesses may benefit from these products when making
seasonal decisions about what combinations of products to manufacture
or stock, which regions of the country may require more or less of
their products, etc.
Private concerns, such as consulting meteorologists, who serve a
variety of clientele (such as economists; commodity forecasters and
traders; travel, transportation, and shipping industry professionals)
may recognize new opportunities to produce value-added products
tailored to the needs of those paying customers, who do not have the
technical capabilities to use the raw data themselves.
Through Regional Climate Centers (RCC), local, state and federal
agencies (departments of transportation, agriculture, forestry,
business and industry, and others) may use the raw data or value-added
products for planning, budgeting and decision making.
The longer lead times of the climate outlooks also will be a valuable
part of the National Weather Service's Water Resources Forecasting
System (WARFS) which will begin implementation in parts of the Upper
Mississippi River Basin in the coming year. Using WARFS, improved
climate information may help hydrologists address areas that may flood
several months in the future and may help federal, state and local
organizations make decisions for flood and drought preparations.
WARFS, aided by the long-lead climate outlooks, may allow competing
interests such as hydropower, fisheries, irrigation, navigation, and
water resource managers to maximize their benefits from information of
future water availability. Better river flow information, for
example, is useful for river navigation management, barge traffic
management, lock and dam operation, and river recreation.
...FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS...
QUESTION:Is this a year-long or annual prediction?
ANSWER: Neither. The new product is a series of 90-day outlooks
produced in one-month steps. The series begins with the outlook for
the next three months (for example February, March and April),
followed in turn by a separate 90-day outlook for the period beginning
one month later than the first 90-day outlook (to continue the
example, March, April and May). A series of 13 90-day outlooks will
be issued around the middle of the preceding month.
QUESTION: Can I use this product to help me schedule an outdoor event
when we'll have nice weather?
ANSWER: The outlooks do not attempt to accurately predict weather for
any one given day or location. The methods used to produce each
outlook will at best offer insight into longer-term expected trends
(such as drier or wetter than normal for a season in a particular
region of the country).
QUESTION: How is this different from the Farmer's Almanac?
ANSWER: The two do not compare. The NWS outlooks do not attempt to
offer precise predictions of temperature and rainfall.
QUESTION: How do I know what is "normal" weather where I live? (above
"normal", below "normal")
ANSWER: Normals for your area of residence are typically given in
weather reports provided by the news media. Your nearest NWS Office
or RCC can also provide the normal climate pattern for your area.
QUESTION: Who will find this prediction useful?
ANSWER: Governments and industries which already use a variety of
means to anticipate future weather patterns for making decisions
(transportation managers who must determine how much road salt to
purchase for use in winter, farmers who are looking to get the most
yield out of their arable land). The predictions will not be useful
for anyone trying to plan an event for a specific date.
QUESTION: What elements go into a long range outlook?
ANSWER: Sea surface temperature patterns, upper atmospheric winds, and
historical weather patterns.
QUESTION: What kind of information will be included in the outlooks?
ANSWER: The outlooks will have information about temperature and
precipitation for different regions of the country. The outlook will
compare the anticipated temperature and precipitation to normals for a
given region, and categorize the anticipated levels as above normal,
normal or below normal.
MORE QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS IN PART 4
ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE...PART 4 OF 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
945 AM EST WED DEC 21 1994
TO: ALL NWS OFFICES AND NWS EMPLOYEES
FROM: BARRY REICHENBAUGH, OFFICE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: INFORMATION FOR INQUIRIES ON THE NEW CLIMATE OUTLOOKS
PART 4 OF A 7-PART MESSAGE
...QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS CONTINUED...
QUESTION: Are these new outlooks produced using the same techniques as
the old 30- and 90-day outlooks we are accustomed to looking at?
ANSWER: No. The techniques and our methods for using them are
different. The techniques we use are both statistical (the canonical
correlation analysis and the optimal climate normals) and dynamical
(coupled ocean-atmosphere model). Even more importantly, we strictly
require that a prediction of climatological probabilities be used in
regions where the techniques we use have marginal accuracy.
QUESTION: Are the predictions more reliable for different times of the
year? Is a prediction for 8 months away "less accurate" than a
prediction for 3 months away?
ANSWER: Briefly, the January, February, March outlook and the July,
August, September outlook are the highest in terms of reliability or
"skill." The April, May, June outlook and the November, December,
January outlook have the lowest skill. As most of us know from
personal experience, these are "transition" months between seasons
when the weather can wildly fluctuate from day to day. The skill of
outlooks also varies between regions of the U.S. It is quite possible
that a prediction for a period eight months in the future may actually
be more reliable than an outlook for the next 90 days. Your Regional
Climate Center (RCC) can give you with detailed information about
these aspects of the skill of the outlooks.
QUESTION: Is there any difference in the reliability of temperature
vs. precipitation outlooks?
ANSWER: At almost all prediction ranges, U.S. temperature predictions
have turned out to be substantially better (on average) than U.S.
precipitation predictions. This is because temperature is continuous
(at each point there is always a temperature value -- the temperature
varies "monotonically" from place to place). Precipitation, on the
other hand, is discontinuous, (at each point there is either zero
precipitation or some amount -- precipitation does not vary smoothly
from one place to the next).
QUESTION: I have to make a decision involving millions of dollars.
Weather is an important input to my decision process but it is not the
only input. How reliable are these predictions? How much weight
should I give them in my decision making process?
ANSWER: Your decision can be weighted appropriately by combining the
known skill of the outlook (available from your RCC with the
appropriate mathematical decision-making tools. Please have the
climatologist/meteorologist in your company check with the RCCs or
contact a private meteorological firm skilled in these techniques.
QUESTION: I live in Idaho. I understand these outlooks are less
useful in my area. Can you explain why that is?
ANSWER: The accuracy of any outlook varies both regionally and
seasonally. In some places, for example, coastal areas, the ocean
exerts a stabilizing influence on the climate, making it less
changeable, or less "noisy," with respect to atmospheric disturbances
at seasonal time scales. In those regions, the atmosphere is also
more predictable on long-ranges for a larger portion of the year,
since slow climate variations which produce relatively small, but
persistent anomalies, stand out better in the data.
Regions which are far from coasts, and especially in the mountainous
western section of North America, including large portions of Idaho,
are more subject to rapid and repeated short-term climate variations.
Unfortunately, many of these variations are, by nature, not
predictable. Rather, they contribute to the climate noise, often
making any small, persistent anomalies which do occur
indistinguishable from the climate noise.
QUESTION: Can you explain, in layman's terms, how sea surface
temperatures in tropical areas affect the U.S. weather patterns?
ANSWER: The answer can be put into layman's terms, but is not so
simple. The sea surface temperature near the equatorial Pacific Ocean
changes little from day-to-day, week-to-week, or even month-to-month.
This means that sea-surface temperature anomalies, i.e., the sea-
surface temperature which is warmer or colder than the 30-year average
for the location and date, lasts for months, seasons or even years.
Sea-surface temperature in the tropics is closely related to the
occurrence of large thunderstorms throughout the tropics. Such storms
transfer warmth from the ocean surface into the atmosphere overhead.
At an average of every three to five years, ocean surface temperatures
in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific become abnormally warm.
The abnormal warming in the eastern Pacific often begins in mid to
late December and peaks during the northern spring. During El Ni$o
episodes, abnormally low pressure is observed in the eastern tropical
Pacific and abnormally high pressure is found over Indonesia and
northern Australia. The normal pattern of tropical cloudiness and
precipitation is also disrupted. Rainfall that normally falls over
Indonesia shifts eastward over the abnormally warm ocean waters of the
central equatorial Pacific.
The effect of El Ni$o upon the global atmospheric circulation together
with the location of the U.S. just to the northeast, make the U.S.
particularly vulnerable to increased storminess over the southern U.S.
during El Ni$o. Another effect of El Ni$o is reduced storm- ness over
the northern U.S., along with unusual warmth and dry conditions.
MORE PARTS TO FOLLOW IN THE NEW FEW DAYS.
END OF PART 4 OF 7
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
930 AM EST WED DEC 21 1994
TO: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) EMPLOYEES, FAMILY OF
SERVICES (FOS) SUBSCRIBERS, NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
(NWWS) SUBSCRIBERS, OTHER NWS PRODUCT USERS
FROM: DONALD R. WERNLY, CHIEF, WARNING AND FORECAST BRANCH
SUBJECT: SHORT-FUSE COUNTY WARNING TRANSFER NOTICE # 95-5: OMAHA,
NEBRASKA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE'S SHORT-FUSE
COUNTY WARNING AREA EXPANDS...EFFECTIVE MARCH 1, 1995
...CORRECTION TO "C" CODE FOR THURSTON CO. NEBRASKA IN TABLE 1.
ALL OTHER INFORMATION REMAINS THE SAME AS ISSUED DEC. 19...
Effective Wednesday March 1, 1995 at 8:00 a.m. Central Standard
Time, the National Weather Service (NWS) will transfer short-fuse
warning responsibility for 20 counties in Nebraska and 1 county in Iowa
to the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in Omaha (OMA), Nebraska
(table 1). Eleven (11) counties will be transferred from the Weather
Service Office (WSO) in Norfolk (OFK), Nebraska. Eight (8) counties
will be transferred from the WSO in Lincoln (LNK), Nebraska. Two (2)
counties will be transferred from the WSO in Sioux City (SUX), Iowa.
WSFO OMA will issue short-fuse warning products (table 2) and
related products that give follow-up information on the warnings
(table 3). For holders of NWS Operations Manual Chapter C-47,
County Warning Areas, this transfer is the 5th update for 1995.
Because of this county warning transfer, subscribers to the NOAA
Weather Wire Service (NWWS) and the Family Of Services (FOS) must
take appropriate action to receive the short-fuse warnings and
related products for these counties using the OMA identifier
instead of the OFK, LNK, or SUX identifier (tables 2 and 3). The
Universal Generic Codes (UGC) will remain unchanged (Table 1).
TABLE 1: Counties transferred to OMA. Z=zone code; C=county code
NE COUNTY UGC Z UGC C FROM NE COUNTY UGC Z UGC C FROM
Knox NEZ011- NEC107- OFK Cedar NEZ012- NEC027- OFK
Antelope NEZ016- NEC003- OFK Pierce NEZ017- NEC139- OFK
Wayne NEZ018- NEC179- OFK Boone NEZ030- NEC011- OFK
Madison NEZ031- NEC119- OFK Stanton NEZ032- NEC167- OFK
Cuming NEZ033- NEC039- OFK Platte NEZ042- NEC141- OFK
Colfax NEZ043- NEC037- OFK Butler NEZ050- NEC023- LNK
Seward NEZ065- NEC159- LNK Lancaster NEZ066- NEC109- LNK
Saline NEZ078- NEC151- LNK Jefferson NEZ088- NEC095- LNK
Gage NEZ089- NEC067- LNK Johnson NEZ090- NEC097- LNK
Pawnee NEZ092- NEC133- LNK Thurston NEZ015- NEC173- SUX
...CORRECTION
IA COUNTY UGC Z UGC C FROM
Monona IAZ043- IAC133- SUX
Table 2. The following are short-fuse warning products for the
counties transferred to OMA. UGC county (C) codes are used in these.
Warning product for: AFOS/NWWS ID WMO header for (FOS)
Tornadoes OMATOROMA WFUS1 KOMA
Severe Thunderstorms OMASVROMA WUUS1 KOMA
Flash Floods OMAFFWOMA WRUS1 KOMA
Table 3. The following are key related products for the counties
transferred to OMA. UGC zone (Z) codes are used in these.
Related products AFOS/NWWS ID WMO header for (FOS)
Special weather statement OMASPSOMA WWUS35 KOMA
Severe weather statement OMASVSOMA WWUS34 KOMA
Civil emergency message OMACEMOMA MMUS40 KOMA
Public info. statement OMAPNSOMA ABUS34 KOMA
Winter weather warnings OMAWSWOMA WWUS46 KOMA
Non-precipitation warning OMANPWOMA WWUS45 KOMA
Short-term forecast OMANOWOMA FXUS21 KOMA
Flash flood statement OMAFFSOMA RWUS32 KOMA
Local storm report OMALSROMA WWUS30 KOMA
WSFO OMA will continue to issue products for longer-fuse
events in the Nebraska counties (except Thurston County), including
those in table 3.
For Thurston County, Nebraska, and Monona County, Iowa, WSFO Des
Moines (DSM), Iowa will continue to issue the following for
longer-fuse events.
Related products AFOS/NWWS ID WMO header for (FOS)
Special weather statement DSMSPSDSM WWUS35 KDSM
Severe weather statement DSMSVSDSM WWUS34 KDSM
Civil emergency message DSMCEMDSM MMUS40 KDSM
Public info. statement DSMPNSDSM ABUS34 KDSM
Winter weather warnings DSMWSWDSM WWUS46 KDSM
Non-precipitation warning DSMNPWDSM WWUS45 KDSM
If you have further questions, you may contact the following:
David C. Theophilus Frederic B. Meier, MIC
Meteorologist-in-Charge (MIC) National Weather Service,
National Weather Service, NOAA General Aviation Building
6707 North 288th Street P.O. Box 719 Lincoln Municipal Airport
Valley, Ne. 68064-0719 Lincoln, Ne. 68524-1847
402-359-5166 402-437-5434
Gene Bowman, MIC James A. Kline
National Weather Service, NOAA National Weather Service
R.R. 2, Box 383 2403 Ogden Box A5
Norfolk, Ne. 68701-9759 Sioux City, IA 51110-1223
402-371-5731 712-255-3944
J. John Feldt, MIC phone 515-270-4501
National Weather Service Forecast Office, NOAA
9607 NW Beaver Drive, Johnston, Iowa 50131-1908
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EST WED DEC 21 1994
TO: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) EMPLOYEES, FAMILY OF
SERVICES (FOS) SUBSCRIBERS, NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
(NWWS) SUBSCRIBERS, OTHER NWS PRODUCT USERS
FROM: DONALD WERNLY, CHIEF, WARNING AND FORECAST BRANCH
SUBJECT: SHORT FUSE COUNTY WARNING TRANSFER # 95-8: CHEYENNE,
WYOMING, WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE'S SHORT-FUSE
COUNTY WARNING AREA EXPANDS...EFFECTIVE MARCH 1, 1995.
Effective Wednesday March 1, 1995 at 8:00 a.m. Mountain
Standard Time, the National Weather Service (NWS) will transfer
short-fuse warning responsibility for 10 counties in Wyoming and
Nebraska, (table 1) TO the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO)
in Cheyenne (CYS), Wyoming. Two (2) counties will be transferred
from the Weather Service Office (WSO) in Casper (CPR), Wyoming.
Eight (8) counties will be transferred from the WSO in
Scottsbluff (BFF), Nebraska.
WSFO CYS will issue short-fuse warning products (table 2)
and related products that give follow-up information on the
warnings (table 3). For holders of NWS Operations Manual Chapter
C-47, County Warning Areas, this transfer is the 8th update for
1995.
Because of this county warning transfer, subscribers to the
NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS) and the Family Of Services (FOS)
must take appropriate action to receive the short-fuse warnings
and related products for these counties using the CYS identifier
instead of the CPR or BFF identifiers (tables 2 and 3). The
Universal Generic Codes (UGC) will remain unchanged (as shown in
table 1).
Table 1.
County UGC ZONE UGC COUNTY from to
code code
Converse WYZ059- WYC009- CPR CYS
Niobrara WYZ060- WYC027- CPR CYS
Sioux NEZ001- NEC165- BFF CYS
Dawes NEZ002- NEC045- BFF CYS
Box Butte NEZ003- NEC013- BFF CYS
Scotts Bluff NEZ019- NEC157- BFF CYS
Banner NEZ020- NEC007- BFF CYS
Morrill NEZ021- NEC123- BFF CYS
Kimball NEZ054- NEC105- BFF CYS
Cheyenne NEZ055- NEC033- BFF CYS
Table 2. The following are short-fuse warning products for the
counties transferred to CYS. UGC county codes (C), are used in
these products.
Warning product for: AFOS/NWWS ID WMO header for (FOS)
Tornadoes CYSTORCYS WFUS1 KCYS
Severe Thunderstorms CYSSVRCYS WUUS1 KCYS
Flash Floods CYSFFWCYS WRUS1 KCYS
Table 3. The following are key related products for the counties
transferred to CYS. UGC zone codes (Z) are used in these.
Related products AFOS/NWWS ID WMO header for (FOS)
Special weather statement CYSSPSCYS WWUS35 KCYS
Severe weather statement CYSSVSCYS WWUS34 KCYS
Civil emergency message CYSCEMCYS MMUS40 KCYS
Public info. statement CYSPNSCYS ABUS34 KCYS
Winter weather warnings CYSWSWCYS WWUS46 KCYS
Non-precipitation warning CYSNPWCYS WWUS45 KCYS
Short-term forecast CYSNOWCYS FXUS21 KCYS
Flash flood statement CYSFFSCYS RWUS32 KCYS
Local storm report CYSLSRCYS WWUS30 KCYS
For the Nebraska counties, WSFO Omaha (OMA), Nebraska will
continue to issue the following products for longer-fuse events.
Related products AFOS/NWWS ID WMO header for (FOS)
Special weather statement OMASPSOMA WWUS35 KOMA
Severe weather statement OMASVSOMA WWUS34 KOMA
Civil emergency message OMACEMOMA MMUS40 KOMA
Public info. statement OMAPNSOMA ABUS34 KOMA
Winter weather warnings OMAWSWOMA WWUS46 KOMA
Non-precipitation warning OMANPWOMA WWUS45 KOMA
If you have further questions, you may contact the following:
William T. Parker (Meteorologist-in-Charge) ph. 307-772-2468
National Weather Service Forecast Office, NOAA
1301 Airport Parkway
Cheyenne, Wyoming 82001-1549
Jerry Leslie (Official-in-charge) ph. 307-234-1201
National Weather Service Office, NOAA
8410 Fuller Street (FS-WB Bldg.)
Natrona County International Airport
Casper, Wyoming 82604-1644
Michael Hayes (Official-in-charge) ph. 308-632-3011
National Weather Service Office, NOAA
250025 Airport Terminal Street
Scottsbluff, Nebraska 69361-9517
ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE...PART 5 OF 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
930 AM EST THU DEC 22 1994
TO: ALL NWS OFFICES AND NWS EMPLOYEES
FROM: BARRY REICHENBAUGH, OFFICE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: INFORMATION FOR INQUIRIES ON THE NEW CLIMATE OUTLOOKS
PART 5 OF A 7-PART MESSAGE
...METHODOLOGIES USED IN PREPARING THE NEW LONG-LEAD CLIMATE OUTLOOK
The outlooks in the Long-Lead Climate Outlook are formed from a
combination of methods or "tools." For United States seasonal average
temperature and total precipitation outlooks, these include:
1. CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), a statistical method that
relates the time evolution of variations in global sea surface
temperature, winds near 10,000 feet, and U.S. surface climate. This
method relates the prior four seasons to upcoming variations in U.S.
surface temperature and precipitation.
2. OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS, a statistical method that averages the
variations in interannual temperature or precipitation during an
optimum number of the most recent years. This method uses averages
from the best periods as predictions for the location and season of
interest.
3. GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL, predictions of U.S. temperature and
precipitation variations from a group of nine six-month outlooks all
valid for the same future outlook period. A mathematical
representation of the atmosphere is used to determine the effect on
U.S. temperature and precipitation variations in tropical sea surface
temperature.
The actual prediction process is performed by two scientists who,
together, examine the results from the three tools described. The
final prediction, a consolidation of the three tools, is made as
objectively as possible.
With ongoing climate research continuing, new methodologies may be
developed and used in the future should they prove skillful.
...GLOSSARY OF TERMS...
ANALOG YEAR -A particular year in history when the weather patterns
and characteristics for the period of interest were similar to the
current weather patterns.
CCA-CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS; prediction of the temporal
evolution of spatial predictand patterns from time-lagged observed
prior patterns of several predictor variables. In the case of the CCA
used in the long-lead multi-season outlooks, the predictors are U.S.
surface temperature at 59 stations, 700mb height anomalies and global
SST for the four immediately adjacent, non-overlapping seasons, while
the predictand is U.S. surface temperature at 59 stations.
CLIMATE (SHORT-TERM) -The time-average of hourly or daily
meteorological observations for a single case in single year. The
averaging period is usually a month or more. 90-day averages of
temperature and precipitation are the parameters of concern in the
long-lead mufti-season outlooks.
CLIMATE -The statistical collection and representation of the weather
condition for a specific area during a long-term time interval,
usually decades, together with a description of the external
biophysical conditions.
CLIMATE CHANGE -The long-term fluctuations in temperatures,
precipitation, wind, and all other aspects of the Earth's climate.
CLIMATE ANOMALY -The deviation of a particular climatic variable from
the mean or normal over a specified time. A 30-year average of hourly
or daily meteorological observations for 90 or so adjacent days,
generally three consecutive calendar months, is the climatology of
concern in our seasonal outlooks. It is this climatology which is
removed from the outlooks and observations to produce the anomalies of
interest.
CLIMATOLOGY OUTLOOK-a outlook that uses the 30-year mean for the
target season as the outlook, e.g., a zero-anomaly outlook. In the
new Outlook, the 1961-1990 mean is used.
COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL -The coupled ocean-
atmosphere model used in the long-lead outlooks is a version of the
National Meteorological Centers Medium Range Forecast model, with
special developmental emphasis on tropical processes, e.g.,
convection, air-sea interaction, surface stress, etc. The Climate
Prediction Center at NCEP uses two six-month GCM forecasts driven by
two different sets of sea surface temperatures (SST). The first of
these boundary fields consists of SSTs persisted from 1/2 month ago
(PSST), while the second SST field is from a 9-member ensemble of
coupled ocean/atmosphere model runs (FSST).
DECISION MAKING-the process of making an informed choice among the
alternative actions that are possible. Given a outlook and the known
skill of the outlook method, it is possible to develop
algorithms for making decisions objectively. The new outlooks offer
an opportunity to do this.
GLOSSARY CONTINUES IN PART 6
END OF PART 5 OF 7
ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE...PART 6 OF 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EST THU DEC 22 1994
TO: ALL NWS OFFICES AND NWS EMPLOYEES
FROM: BARRY REICHENBAUGH, OFFICE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: INFORMATION FOR INQUIRIES ON THE NEW CLIMATE OUTLOOKS
PART 6 OF A 7-PART MESSAGE
...GLOSSARIES OF TERMS CONTINUED...
EL NINO -The warm phase of the Southern Oscillation. Characterized by
the warming of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and
eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, beginning at about Christmas time
(hence the name "El Nino", which is a reference to the Christ child).
The anomalous warm water causes the deep convection to shift from its
normal position near Indonesia to the east. This is also preceded and
accompanied by anomalous westerly wind anomalies at low levels. The
westerly anomalies cause the development of a Kelvin wave in the ocean
which slowly propagates eastward. During the warm phase of the
southern oscillation (SO), severe drought occurs over Indonesia and
Australia.
The warming of the ocean in the tropical Pacific increases the
strength of the Hadley circulation, and causes the entire tropics to
warm. The strengthened hemispheric north-south temperature gradient
adds energy to the atmosphere. In particular, the subtropical jet is
stronger and its maximum winds extend farther to the east than is
normal. This is often related to a deeper than normal Aleutian low, a
split jet-level flow pattern over the western U.S. and a trough in the
southeastern U.S. This pattern is called the Pacific North American
teleconnection pattern. When established, it leads to warm, dry
conditions over the northern U.S., particularly the Northwest, and to
unusually wet conditions over the southern U.S. The El Nino typically
lasts from 12 to 18 months.
ENSO (EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) -An acronym designed to stress the
special importance of the warm phase (El Nino) of the Southern
Oscillation.
GCM-GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; a computer model with time dependent
mathematical equations that describe the physical process of the
atmosphere.
OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS (OCN)-A method of making outlooks for seasonal
mean temperature and precipitation through persisting recent
interannual trends in those variables. The method selects the most
recent adjacent K years which, based on past data, produce the best
outlook for the target season. K is usually between 1 and 15 years.
The outlook for the target season is expressed as the difference
between the average of the observed temperature during the most recent
K years for the target season and the climatology (30-year mean) for
the that season. This technique has been used for years by power
companies.
PERSISTENCE OUTLOOK- An outlook that the future seasonal mean will be
the same as the most recently observed seasonal mean; often used as a
standard of comparison in measuring the degree of skill of outlooks
prepared by other methods.
PROBABILITY -If an experiment can occur in "n" mutually exclusive and
equally likely ways, and if exactly "m" of these ways correspond to an
event E, then the probability of E is given by
P(E)=m/n
PROBABILITY ANOMALY -The deviation of the probability of the
occurrence of an event from the climatological probabilities.
RBBS-remote bulletin board system
SEASONAL ANALOG -An observed pattern from a prior year which closely
resembles another observed or predicted pattern. Resemblance is
usually established by pattern correlation or root mean square
difference. Good analogs to a pattern over the entire hemisphere are
very unusual. The smaller the area over which one attempts to find
analogs the more good analogs one will find.
SKILL SCORE-an index of the degree of skill of a set of outlooks,
expressed with reference to some standard outlooks based upon chance,
persistence, or climatology.
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (SO) - A "see-saw" in surface pressure in the
tropical Pacific characterized by simultaneously opposite sea level
pressure anomalies at Tahiti, in the eastern tropical Pacific and
Darwin, on the northwest coast of Australia. The SO was discovered by
Sir Gilbert Walker in the early 1920's. Walker was among the first
meteorologists to use statistical techniques to analyze and predict
meteorological phenomena. Later, the three-dimensional east-west
circulation related to the SO was discovered and named the Walker
Circulation.
The SO oscillates with a period of 2-5 years. During one phase, when
SLP is low at Tahiti and High at Darwin, the El Nino occurs. This is
called the warm phase of the SO. The cold phase of the SO, called "La
Nina" by some, is characterized by high pressure in the eastern
equatorial Pacific, low in the west, and by anomalous cold SST in the
central and eastern Pacific.
SST-sea surface temperature
VERIFICATION-any process for determining the accuracy of a outlook by
comparing the predicted value of a parameter with the observed value.
PART 7 WILL BE SENT FRI, DEC 23.
END OF PART 6 OF 7
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
925 AM EST THU DEC 22 1994
TO: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) EMPLOYEES, FAMILY OF
SERVICES (FOS) SUBSCRIBERS, NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
(NWWS) SUBSCRIBERS, OTHER NWS PRODUCT USERS
FROM: DONALD R. WERNLY, CHIEF, WARNING AND FORECAST BRANCH
SUBJECT: SHORT-FUSE COUNTY WARNING TRANSFER #95-4: QUAD-CITIES
(DAVENPORT/MOLINE) WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORT-FUSE
COUNTY WARNING AREA EXPANDS...EFFECTIVE MARCH 1, 1995
*** CORRECTED STATEMENT FOR TWO ILLINOIS COUNTIES (CARROLL AND
STEPHENSON) IN TABLE 1 ALREADY TRANSFERRED TO THE QUAD CITIES OFFICE (ON
10/3/94). ALL OTHER INFORMATION TRANSMITTED DEC. 19 REMAINS THE SAME.
Effective Wednesday March 1, 1995 at 8:00 a.m. Central Standard
Time, the National Weather Service (NWS) will transfer short-fuse
warning responsibility for twenty (20) counties in Iowa and
Illinois to the Weather Service Office (WSO) in the Quad-Cities
(Davenport/Moline) (MLI). See table 1. Eight (8) counties will be
transferred from the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in Des
Moines (DSM), Iowa. Four (4) counties will be transferred from the WSO
in Dubuque (DBQ), Iowa. One county (1) will be transferred from the WSO
in Waterloo (ALO), Iowa. One county (1) will be transferred from the
WSO in Rockford (RFD), Illinois. Six counties (6) will be transferred
from the WSO in Peoria (PIA), Illinois.
WSO MLI will issue short-fuse warning products (table 2) and
related products that give follow-up information on the warnings
(table 3). For holders of NWS Operations Manual Chapter C-47,
County Warning Areas, this transfer is the 4th update for 1995.
Because of this county warning transfer, subscribers to the NOAA
Weather Wire Service (NWWS) and the Family of Services (FOS) must
take appropriate action to receive the short-fuse warnings and
related products for these counties using the MLI identifier (tables 2
and 3) instead of the DSM, DBQ, ALO, RFD, and PIA identifiers. The
Universal Generic Codes (UGC) will remain unchanged (table 1).
TABLE 1: Counties to be transferred to MLI. Z=zone code; C=county code
*** denotes IL counties already transferred to MLI on 10/3/94
IOWA COUNTY UGC Z UGC C FROM IOWA COUNTY UGC Z UGC C FROM
Benton IAZ051- IAC011- DSM Linn IAZ052- IAC113- DSM
Iowa IAZ063- IAC095- DSM Johnson IAZ064- IAC103- DSM
Keokuk IAZ076- IAC107- DSM Washington IAZ077- IAC183- DSM
Jefferson IAZ087- IAC101- DSM Van Buren IAZ098- IAC177- DSM
Buchanan IAZ040- IAC019- ALO Deleware IAZ041- IAC055- DBQ
Dubuque IAZ042- IAC061- DBQ Jones IAZ053- IAC105- DBQ
Jackson IAZ054- IAC097- DBQ
IL COUNTY UGC Z UGC C FROM IL COUNTY UGC Z UGC C FROM
Jo Daviess ILZ001- ILC085- RFD Stephenson ***ILZ002- ILC177- ***
Carroll *** ILZ007- ILC015- *** Bureau ILZ017- ILC011- PIA
Putnam ILZ018- ILC155- PIA Henderson ILZ025- ILC071- PIA
Warren ILZ026- ILC187- PIA Hancock ILZ034- ILC067- PIA
McDonough ILZ035- ILC109- PIA
Table 2. The following are short-fuse warning products for the
counties transferred to MLI. UGC county codes (C) are used in these.
Warning product for: AFOS/NWWS ID WMO header for (FOS)
Tornadoes CHITORMLI WFUS1 KMLI
Severe Thunderstorms CHISVRMLI WUUS1 KMLI
Flash Floods CHIFFWMLI WRUS1 KMLI
Table 3. The following are key related products for the counties
transferred to MLI. UGC zone codes (Z), are used in these.
RELATED PRODUCTS AFOS/NWWS ID WMO HEADER FOR (FOS)
Special weather statement CHISPSMLI WWUS35 KMLI
Severe weather statement CHISVSMLI WWUS34 KMLI
Civil emergency message CHICEMMLI MMUS40 KMLI
Public info. statement CHIPNSMLI ABUS34 KMLI
* Winter weather warnings CHIWSWMLI WWUS46 KMLI
* Non-precipitation warning CHINPWMLI WWUS45 KMLI
Short-term forecast CHINOWMLI FXUS21 KMLI
Flash flood statement CHIFFSMLI RWUS32 KMLI
Local storm report CHILSRMLI WWUS30 KMLI
* For emergency backup to WSFO DSM or WSFO CHI.
For longer fuse events, WSFO DSM and WSFO Chicago (CHI), Illinois will
continue to issue these products for the Iowa and Illinois counties
respectively, including those from the first six categories of table 3.
(e.g. DSMWSWDSM; WWUS46 KDSM or CHIWSWCHI, WWUS46 KCHI).
If you have further questions, you may contact the following:
J. John Feldt, Meteorologist-in-Charge (MIC)
National Weather Service Forecast Office, NOAA
9607 NW Beaver Drive
Johnston, Ia. 50131-1908
515-270-4501
Charles Fenley (MIC) Rod Palmer, OIC 309-697-9656
National Weather Service, NOAA National weather Service, NOAA
7501 68th St. Aviation Building
Milan, Il. 61264-3266 Greater Peoria Airport
309-793-5774 Peoria, Illinois 61607-1290
Meryln R. Goodson Bob Collins, OIC
Official-in-charge (OIC) National Weather Service, NOAA
National weather Service, NOAA 5 Airport Circle
Municipal Airport R.R. 2 Greater Rockford Airport
Waterloo, Iowa 50703-9677 Rockford, Illinois 61109-2927
319-233-4244 815-963-4557
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