[nws-changes] 201303015:NWS trans from Deterministic to Probab storm surger fcosts- Fwd: ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC

• To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Subject: [nws-changes] 201303015:NWS trans from Deterministic to Probab storm surger fcosts- Fwd: ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC
• From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
• Date: Tue, 05 Mar 2013 10:01:20 -0700

-------- Original Message --------

818
NOUS41 KWBC 051509
PNSWSH

Technical Implementation Notice 13-07
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
1010 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2013

To:      Subscribers:
         -Family of Services
         -NOAA Weather Wire Service
         -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
         -NOAAPORT
         Other NWS Partners...and NWS Employees

From:    Mark Tew
         Chief, Marine and Coastal Services Branch

Subject: NWS Transitioning from Deterministic To Probabilistic
         Storm Surge Forecasts effective with the
         2013 Hurricane Season

will no longer provide deterministic Sea, Lake, and Overland
Flooding from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model output during tropical
cyclones in an unofficial manner.

The American Meteorological Society and the National Academies of
Science have endorsed greater use of probabilistic forecasts by
NWS. For several years, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has
been providing probabilistic storm surge products as part of a
long-term, multiyear NWS effort to improve communications on
storm surge.

SLOSH deterministic guidance was informally provided to some
users over the past several years; however, the deterministic
SLOSH model output has the potential to conflict with the
official NWS forecast for storm surge and to interfere with
evacuation decisions from emergency managers.

A description of the current suite of operational, probabilistic
storm surge guidance products is provided on line at:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml

The NWS will again provide an experimental suite of probabilistic
storm surge products for 2013 that communicate inundation in
terms of feet above ground level. This information will be
provided on an interactive Google Earth background map and as a
static image. Information on these experimental products is
available at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/phish

A separate Public Information Statement on these experimental
products will be disseminated prior to May 15, 2013.

In addition to the operational and experimental probabilistic
storm surge products, the NWS is also actively developing
inundation graphics and a storm surge watch/warning.

For technical questions regarding this notice, please contact:

Jamie Rhome
National Hurricane Center
Storm Surge Team Lead
Miami, FL  33165
305-299-4444
Jamie.R.Rhome@xxxxxxxx

For policy questions regarding this notice, please contact:

      Timothy Schott
      NWS Marine and Coastal Services Branch
      Silver Spring Maryland 20910
      301-713-1677 X122
      Timothy.Schott@xxxxxxxx

National Technical Implementation Notices are online at:

      http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

$$