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NOUS41 KWBC 211434 PNSWSH SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 06-30 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC1025 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2006 TO: FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS... NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...NWS EMPLOYEES
FROM: ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION
SUBJECT: NWS LOCAL 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS TO BECOME
OFFICIAL ON THIRD THURSDAY OF THE MONTH...
EFFECTIVE SEPTEMBER 21 2006
REFER TO: SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 06-24 TRANSMITTED JUNE 22 2006
EFFECTIVE THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 21 2006...THE NWS CLIMATE SERVICES
DIVISION /CSD/ WILL OFFICIALLY ISSUE THE LOCAL 3-MONTH
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS /L3MTO/ ON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE /WFO/
CLIMATE WEB PAGES ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF THE MONTH AT 830 A.M.
EDT OR 1330 UTC /COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME/. THESE WFO WEB
PAGES ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CLIMATE/L3MTO.PHP
THE NWS CSD THANKS ALL WHO PROVIDED PUBLIC COMMENTS DURING THE
EXPERIMENTAL PHASE FOR THIS PRODUCT...WHICH WERE CONSIDERED IN
THE DESIGN FOR UPCOMING OFFICIAL ISSUANCES. COMMENTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACCEPTED FROM THE WEBSITE SHOWN ABOVE AND WILL BE
CONSIDERED IN PERIODIC WEBSITE REVIEWS FOR POSSIBLE REVISIONS.
CSD WILL ISSUE L3MTO CONCURRENTLY WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ NATIONAL 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS. L3MTO ARE TAILORED FROM CPC OUTLOOKS TO APPROXIMATELY 1200 SITE-SPECIFIC STATIONS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. /CONUS/ AND ALASKA. CSD WILL ISSUE L3MTO FOR APPROXIMATELY 10 STATIONS IN EACH WFO AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN CONUS AND ALASKA. ADDITIONAL SITES AND CLIMATE PARAMETERS ARE PLANNED IN THE FUTURE. L3MTO INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE IN BOTH GRAPHIC AND TEXT FORMATS. FOR EACH STATION...THE L3MTO PRODUCT SUITE WILL CONSIST OF OUTLOOKS WITH LEAD TIMES FROM 0.5 MONTHS TO 12.5 MONTHS. FOR EXAMPLE...ON THE THIRD THURSDAY IN SEPTEMBER THERE WILL BE L3MTO FOR OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER...NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY... DECEMBER THOUGH FEBRUARY...AND SO ON TO OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER OF THE FOLLOWING YEAR.
AN L3MTO WILL CONSIST OF THREE TYPES OF OUTPUT:A. THREE CATEGORY OUTLOOK: CSD WILL EXPRESS THE OUTLOOK AS FORECASTED PROBABILITY /IN PERCENT/ THAT THE AVERAGE 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE WILL FALL INTO EACH OF THREE CATEGORIES: ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL. CSD REFERENCE TO NORMAL CLIMATOLOGY COMES FROM THE 30-YEAR /1971-2000/ MEAN 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE AND CATEGORY LIMITS. CSD DEFINES THE CATEGORIES AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY EQUALLY LIKELY: E.G...THE TOP 10 CASES OF A THIRTY YEAR RECORD DEFINE THE ABOVE CATEGORY...THE MIDDLE 10 CASES DEFINE THE NORMAL CATEGORY...AND THE BOTTOM 10 CASES DEFINE THE BELOW CATEGORY.
B. RANGE OUTLOOK: CSD WILL EXPRESS THE EXPECTED RANGE OF THE AVERAGE 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE. EXPECTED RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE PRODUCED FOR FIVE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS OR LEVELS OF EXPECTED CHANCE: 99 PERCENT...95 PERCENT...90 PERCENT...75 PERCENT...AND 50 PERCENT.
C. PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDENCE/NON EXCEEDENCE /POE...PONE/ OUTLOOKS: CSD WILL EXPRESS THE POE/PONE OUTLOOKS AS THE EXPECTED CHANCE OF THE AVERAGE 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE EXCEEDING OR NOT EXCEEDING A PARTICULAR PROBABILITY VALUE. POE AND PONE ARE PRODUCED FOR 19 VALUES: 99 PERCENT...98 PERCENT...97 PERCENT...96 PERCENT...95 PERCENT...90 PERCENT...80 PERCENT...70 PERCENT...60 PERCENT...50 PERCENT...40 PERCENT...30 PERCENT...20 PERCENT...10 PERCENT...5 PERCENT...4 PERCENT...3 PERCENT...2 PERCENT...AND 1 PERCENT.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT:
MICHAEL J. BREWER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE OF CLIMATE...WATER...AND WEATHER SERVICES
CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION - W/OS4
1325 EAST-WEST HIGHWAY
SILVER SPRING MD 20910
/301/713-1970 EXT 123
THIS AND ALL OTHER NWS SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE POSTED AT /USE
LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
$$
NNNN
--
Linda Miller - lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Community Services, Unidata
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307-3000
303-497-8646 fax: 303-497-8690
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