20020918: US Drought Outlook-ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC (fwd)

• To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Subject: 20020918: US Drought Outlook-ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC (fwd)
• From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
• Date: Wed, 18 Sep 2002 15:46:13 -0600

581
NOUS41 KWBC 182132
PNSWSH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 02-52
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
530 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002

TO:       NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ EMPLOYEES...NOAAPORT
         SUBSCRIBERS...FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA
         WEATHER WIRE SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS /NWWS/....EMERGENCY
         MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ USERS...AND
         OTHER NWS CUSTOMERS

FROM:     ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
         CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION

SUBJECT:  ISSUANCE OF U.S. DROUGHT OUTLOOK ON NOAAPORT AND FAMILY
         OF SERVICES... EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 17 2002

EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 17 2002...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/
WILL ISSUE THE U.S. DROUGHT OUTLOOK ON NWS DISSEMINATION SYSTEMS
/LISTED IN THE ADDRESSEE SECTION ABOVE/ ONCE A MONTH ON A THURSDAY
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH AROUND 3:00 P.M. EASTERN LOCAL TIME.
THE OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING THREE AND A HALF MONTHS.
CPC WILL ISSUE THE GRAPHIC PRODUCT UNDER THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT
IDENTIFIERS:

   GRAPHIC:  WMO HEADING - PMNV88 KWNC    AWIPS ID - RBGDRK

THE PRODUCT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR SEVERAL YEARS ON THE CPC
WEB SITE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

             HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

CPC WILL ALSO ISSUE UNSCHEDULED UPDATES AT OTHER TIMES IF NEEDED.

CPC ISSUES THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH THEIR ONE-MONTH
AND THREE-MONTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. THE DROUGHT
OUTLOOK IS USED FOR SEASONAL PLANNING BY AGRICULTURAL...WATER
SUPPLY...AND FIRE WEATHER MANAGERS.

CPC DEPICTS GENERAL LARGE-SCALE TRENDS BASED ON SUBJECTIVELY
DERIVED PROBABILITIES GUIDED BY NUMEROUS INDICATORS...INCLUDING
SHORT AND LONG RANGE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMIC FORECASTS.  CPC
INDICATES PREDICTED TRENDS FOR ONGOING DROUGHT AREAS DEPICTED IN
THE WEEKLY U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS WELL AS POSSIBLE AREAS OF NEW
DROUGHTS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

CPC USES 4 CATEGORIES TO DEPICT EXPECTED DROUGHT CONDITIONS PLUS A
FIFTH CATEGORY FOR NO DROUGHT EXPECTED.  THESE ARE DESCRIBED AS
FOLLOWS:

    DROUGHT TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY
    DROUGHT ONGOING - SOME IMPROVEMENT
    DROUGHT LIKELY TO IMPROVE - IMPACTS EASE
    DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
    NO DROUGHT EXPECTED

CPC WILL ALSO ISSUE A CONCURRENT DROUGHT OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
DETAILING THE ATMOSPHERIC...HYDROLOGIC...AND CLIMATIC CONDITIONS
AFFECTING THE TRENDS OF DROUGHT AREAS.  THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE
ISSUED UNDER THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT IDENTIFIERS:

     TEXT:  WMO HEADING - FXUS22 KWNC   AWIPS ID - PMDDRK

CPC WILL INCLUDE AN EXPLANATION OF THE RATIONALE BEHIND THE OUTLOOK
WITH A DISCUSSION OF THE WEIGHTS GIVEN TO VARIOUS TOOLS USED IN THE
OUTLOOK AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THOSE TOOLS.  CPC WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
REASONING BEHIND MONTHLY CHANGES IN DROUGHT OUTLOOK CONDITIONS.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...CONTACT

    DOUG LECOMTE
    CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - W/NP51
    5200 AUTH RD.
    CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746-4304
    PHONE: 301-763-8000 EXT 7567

THIS NOTICE AND OTHER SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

    HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

$$
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