20020918: Tropical Pacific Mean Sea-Sfs Temps-ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC

• To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Subject: 20020918: Tropical Pacific Mean Sea-Sfs Temps-ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC
• From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
• Date: Wed, 18 Sep 2002 15:43:36 -0600

480
NOUS41 KWBC 182129
PNSWSH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 02-50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
530 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002

TO:       NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ EMPLOYEES...NOAAPORT
         SUBSCRIBERS...FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA
         WEATHER WIRE SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS /NWWS/....EMERGENCY
         MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ USERS...AND
         OTHER NWS CUSTOMERS

FROM:     ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
         CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION

SUBJECT:  ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MEAN SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
         /SST/ OUTLOOK ON NOAAPORT...FOS...NWWS...AND EMWIN...
         EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 11 2002

EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 11 2002...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/
WILL ISSUE A MONTHLY TROPICAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE /SST/
OUTLOOK ON NOAAPORT...FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/...NOAA WEATHER
WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/...AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION
NETWORK /EMWIN/.  CPC WILL ISSUE THE SST OUTLOOK AT 300 PM EASTERN
LOCAL TIME ON THE FRIDAY BEFORE THE ISSUANCE OF THEIR ONE-MONTH AND
THREE-MONTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS SINCE CLIMATE
OUTLOOK TECHNIQUES RELY SIGNIFICANTLY UPON SST FIELDS.  THE REST OF
THE 2002 DATES FOR SST OUTLOOKS ARE NOVEMBER 15 AND DECEMBER 13.
CPC WILL TRANSMIT THE OUTLOOK...IN TABULAR TEXT FORMAT...WITH THE
FOLLOWING IDENTIFIERS.

    WMO HEADING - FXUS23 KWNC       AWIPS ID - PMDSST

THE TROPICAL PACIFIC SST OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NINO 3.4 AREA OF THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC /I.E. 5N TO 5S AND 120W TO 170W/.  THE OUTLOOK
SHOWS THE SST ANOMALIES /FROM THE 1971-2000 CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
NINO 3.4 SST/ IN TENTHS OF A DEGREE CELSIUS FOR THIRTEEN THREE-
MONTH OUTLOOK PERIODS WITH LEAD TIMES OF 0.5 MONTHS TO 12.5 MONTHS.
FOR EXAMPLE...ON OCTOBER 11 2002...THERE WILL BE AN SST OUTLOOK FOR
NOVEMBER 2002 THROUGH JANUARY 2003...DECEMBER 2002 THROUGH FEBRUARY
2003...ETC. UNTIL NOVEMBER 2003 THROUGH JANUARY 2004.

THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK IS LABELED AS CONSOLIDATED.  CPC CONSIDERS THE
SST PREDICTIONS FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE TOOLS...WHICH MAY BE
INDICATED AS WELL.  THE TABLE ALSO GIVES THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
FOR THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOKS IN WHICH 68 PERCENT AND 95 PERCENT OF
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES LIE.  THE SHORTER THE INTERVAL...THE HIGHER THE
EXPECTED SKILL.

A GENERIC FORMAT OF THE PRODUCT FOLLOWS:  NOTE: S IS FOR + OR -

TROPICAL PACIFIC MEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE /SST/ OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM E-T FRI MO.# 20--

MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY SST OUTLOOKS ARE IN TENTHS OF A DEGREE
CELSIUS FOR THE NINO 3.4 AREA OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC /5N-5S AND
120W-170W/. ANOMALIES ARE FROM 1971-2000 NINO 3.4 MEAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
SST /CLM/.

                   THREE MONTH OUTLOOK PERIODS
    EG. JFM IS JANUARY THROUGH MARCH - FMA FOR FEB. THROUGH APR. ETC
    SEE NOTES BELOW ON TYPES OF OUTLOOKS

TYPE  MMM  MMM  MMM  MMM  MMM  MMM  MMM  MMM  MMM  MMM  MMM  MMM  MMM
CONS SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X
U68  SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X
L68  SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X
U95  SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X
L95  SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X
CCA  SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X
CA   SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X
NCEP SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X SX.X

CLM  XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X

NOTES:
CONS - OFFICIAL CONSOLIDATED OUTLOOK
U68  - THE UPPER LIMIT OF 68 PERCENT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR CONS
L68  - THE LOWER LIMIT OF 68 PERCENT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR CONS
U95  - THE UPPER LIMIT OF 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR CONS
L95  - THE LOWER LIMIT OF 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR CONS
CCA  - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS OUTLOOK
CA   - CONSTRUCTED ANALOG OUTLOOK
NCEP - COUPLED OCEAN/ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMIC MODEL OUTLOOK

THIS PRODUCT IS AVAILABLE IN A GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE INTERNET AT
/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

             HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

/DOUBLE DOLLAR SIGN/
- END OF GENERIC FORMAT -

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...CONTACT

    DAVID UNGER
    CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - W/NP52
    5200 AUTH RD.
    CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746-4304
    PHONE:  301-763-8000 EXT 7569
    E-MAIL:  DAVID.UNGER@xxxxxxxx

THIS NOTICE AND OTHER SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT /USE LOWER CASE/:

    HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

$$
END
NNNN


---------- End Forwarded Message ----------