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All, The NCEP Environmental Model Center (EMC) has requested an increase in the resolution of the Global Forecast System (GFS, formerly called the AVN) from T170 to T254. For planning purposes, NCEP Central Operations (NCO) has tentatively scheduled implementation for early September 2002. The increased horizontal and vertical resolution, together with improvements in model physics and dynamics are expected to result in: Consistently improved forecasts of the large-scale circulations amounting to a two hour improvement Lower temperature bias Improved orographic precipitation forecasts Improved resolution of sharp gradients (fronts, jet streams, etc) With computational resources currently available on the IBM SP the impact of this implementation on the NCEP production schedule would be as follows: GFS 120 hr products delayed 21 minutes GFS 384 hr products delayed 21 minutes GFDL hurricane model delayed 21 minutes Wave model products delayed 19 minutes AVN MOS products delayed 21 minutes Global ensemble products delayed 28 minutes When the next Central Computer System (CCS) becomes operational by the third quarter of FY03, the production schedule would return to its current configuration. NCEP is interested in knowing what impact the delay in product delivery will have on your operations. Please provide your comments via email to Kevin.Cooley@xxxxxxxx and NWS.DM@xxxxxxxx. Your input is needed as soon as possible, but no later than Thursday, 20 June 2002. Please be aware that EMC, NCO, and IBM staff are continuing attempts to optimize the GFS to reduce products delays.
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