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NOUS41 KWBC 182141
PNSWSH
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 02-30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
545 PM EDT THU APR 18 2002
TO: FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER
WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS
WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS...
NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
/NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...NWS EMPLOYEES
FROM: ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION
SUBJECT: RESUMPTION OF NATIONAL EXCESSIVE HEAT OUTLOOK
PRODUCTS...EFFECTIVE MAY 1 2002
ON WEDNESDAY...MAY 1 2002...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION'S /NCEP/ CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/
WILL RESUME 6- TO 10-DAY AND 8- TO 14-DAY NATIONAL EXCESSIVE HEAT
OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONTERMINOUS U.S. THE 3- TO 7-DAY EXCESSIVE
HEAT FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED IN A REVISED DAY-TO-DAY FORMAT BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...BEGINNING MAY 1 2002.
REFER TO SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 02-25...ISSUED APRIL 18 2002 FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE NEW 3- TO 7-DAY FORECAST.
CPC WILL ISSUE THE 6- TO 10-DAY AND 8- TO 14-DAY EXCESSIVE HEAT
OUTLOOKS AROUND 400 PM EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME /2000 UTC/ THROUGH
SEPTEMBER 30. THE OUTLOOKS WILL EMPHASIZE DAILY MEAN HEAT INDEX
TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX. HOWEVER...
CPC ALSO WILL PROVIDE THE EXPECTED VALUE OF THE MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX DURING BOTH THE OUTLOOK PERIODS AT APPROXIMATELY 200
LOCATIONS /SEE AWIPS IDS AND WMO HEADINGS NEAR THE END OF THIS
MESSAGE/.
BECAUSE HEALTH RISKS VARY ENORMOUSLY FROM AREA TO AREA...CPC WILL
ISSUE OUTLOOK MAPS OF THE PROBABILITY OF THE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING
THREE DIFFERENT THRESHOLDS USING SOLID ISOLINES OF PROBABILITY
PERCENTAGES. THESE WILL BE OVERLAID ON DASHED ISOLINES OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL PROBABILITIES. CPC CHOSE THE THRESHOLD
HEAT INDEX VALUES BASED ON WHEN CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE WOULD BE
LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT HEALTH RISKS FOR A NUMBER OF THE MOST
VULNERABLE CITIES.
IN ADDITION...BECAUSE VULNERABILITY INCREASES WITH DURATION OF
THE HEAT WAVE...RISKS FOR EXCEEDING THE LOWER THRESHOLDS ARE FOR
DURATIONS LONGER THAN ONE DAY. THESE PRODUCTS WILL CONSIST OF
MAPS OF THE PROBABILITY OF DAILY MEAN HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURE FOR
THRESHOLDS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 85F... 90F... OR 95F FOR THE
6- TO 10-DAY AND 8- TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK PERIODS. THE OUTLOOKS WILL
BE FOR DIFFERENT MINIMUM NUMBERS OF DAYS WITHIN THE PERIOD OF THE
OUTLOOK - NAMELY 3...2 AND 1 DAYS - RESPECTIVELY - WHEN THE
THRESHOLDS ARE EQUALED OR EXCEEDED.
MORE SPECIFICALLY...FOR THE 6- TO 10-DAY AND 8- TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK
PERIODS - THE NEW PRODUCTS PREDICT THE PERCENT CHANCE OF EQUALING
OR EXCEEDING THE FOLLOWING CRITERIA:
A. DAILY AVERAGE HEAT INDEX EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 85F THREE
OR MORE DAYS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
B. DAILY AVERAGE HEAT INDEX EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 90F TWO OR
MORE DAYS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
C. DAILY AVERAGE HEAT INDEX EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 95F ONE OR
MORE DAYS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
THE WMO HEADINGS AND AWIPS IDENTIFIERS FOR THE SIX CHARTS ARE AS
FOLLOWS:
AV. HEAT INDEX 6- TO 10-DAY 8- TO 14-DAY
CRITERIA A PTAS90 KWNC PTAT90 KWNC
/85F+ FOR 3+DAYS/ RBGHI4 RBGHI7
CRITERIA B PTAS95 KWNC PTAT95 KWNC
/90F+ FOR 2+DAYS/ RBGHI5 RBGHI8
CRITERIA C PTAS00 KWNC PTAT00 KWNC
/95F+ FOR 1+DAY/ RBGHI6 RBGHI9
NOTES - THE NUMBERS WITHIN THE WMO HEADINGS DO NOT COINCIDE WITH
THE HEAT INDEX THRESHOLDS.
THE WMO HEADINGS AND AWIPS IDS FOR STATION PLOT MAPS OF 6- TO 10-
DAY AND 8- TO 14-DAY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX PREDICTION ARE AS
FOLLOWS:
6- TO 10-DAY 8- TO 14-DAY
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
PTNQ98 KWNC RBGHX6 PTNW98 KWNC RBGHX8
ALL MAPS WILL BE ISSUED OVER AWIPS...NOAAPORT...AND THE
CPC HOME PAGE /USE LOWER CASE/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
THE FOLLOWING 3- TO 7-DAY CPC HEAT FORECASTS WILL BE DISCONTINUED
AND BE REPLACED BY THE REVISED DAY-TO-DAY FORMAT /FOR DAYS 3 TO
7/ FROM NCEP'S HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...BEGINNING
MAY 1 2002. REFER TO SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 02-25 FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE REPLACEMENT PRODUCTS FROM HPS.
AV. HEAT INDEX - 3- TO 7-DAY /BY CPC/...DISCONTINUED...
WMO HEADINGS AND AWIPS IDENTIFIERS...DISCONTINUED...
CRITERIA A PTAM90 KWNC
/85F+ FOR 3+DAYS/ RBGHI1
CRITERIA B PTAM95 KWNC
/90F+ FOR 2+DAYS/ RBGHI2
CRITERIA C PTAM00 KWNC
/95F+ FOR 1+DAY/ RBGHI3
DISCONTINUED STATION PLOT MAPS BY CPC OF 3- TO 7-DAY MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX PREDICTION:
DISCONTIUNED DISCONTINUED
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
PTNK98 KWNC RBGHX3
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...CONTACT
DAVID UNGER
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - W/NP51
5200 AUTH RD.
CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746-4304
PH: 301-763-8000 EXT 7569
THIS AND OTHER NOTIFICATIONS ARE ON THE INTERNET AT /USE LOWER
CASE/:
WWW.NWS.NOAA/GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
END
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