20020418: PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX PRODUCT SUITE

• To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Subject: 20020418: PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX PRODUCT SUITE
• From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
• Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 10:29:31 -0600

721
NOUS41 KWBC 181509
PNSWSH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 02-25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EDT THU APR 18 2002

TO:       FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER
          WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS
          WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS...
          NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
          /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM:     JAMES E. LEE
          CHIEF...FIRE AND PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES BRANCH

SUBJECT:  NEW NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX PRODUCT SUITE...
          EFFECTIVE MAY 1 2002

ON MAY 1 2002...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN
DISTRIBUTING A NEW PRODUCT...THE PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX.   THE
NEW PRODUCT SUITE WILL INCLUDE A SET OF GRAPHICS DEPICTING THE
PROBABILITY OF THE AVERAGE DAILY HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING SELECTED
THRESHOLDS FOR THE CONTINENTAL U.S.  A COMPANION TEXT PRODUCT
WILL ALSO BE ISSUED WITH THE SAME DATA IN TABULAR FORM.  THE
FORECASTS WILL BE PREPARED AT THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER /HPC/ AND WILL BE ISSUED DAILY AROUND 3 PM EDT.
THE PRODUCTS WILL COVER THE PERIOD FROM THREE TO SEVEN DAYS
AHEAD.  THESE PRODUCTS WILL REPLACE THREE TO SEVEN DAY AVERAGE
HEAT INDEX PRODUCTS PRODUCED BY NCEP'S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
/CPC/.

THE NEW PRODUCT SUITE IS INTENDED TO GIVE CUSTOMERS AN EARLY
INDICATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS.  THE HEAT
INDEX IS CALCULATED BY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BOTH THE TEMPERATURE
AND THE HUMIDITY AND IS A MORE ACCURATE INDICATOR OF DISCOMFORT
THAN THE TEMPERATURE ALONE.  STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT THE
THRESHOLD FOR DANGER DUE TO HEAT RELATED STRESS IS AN AVERAGE
DAILY HEAT INDEX OF 85 DEGREES OR HIGHER.

THE HEAT INDEX IS CALCULATED FOR EACH LOCATION BASED ON HPC
FORECASTS.  THEY ARE CONVERTED TO PROBABILISTIC VALUES BY TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE HPC HEAT INDEX FORECAST AT
A SPECIFIC LOCATION AND FORECAST DAY.

THE GRAPHICS WILL DISPLAY THE PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX FORECAST
FOR DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN AND WILL INCLUDE CHARTS FOR THE
85...90...AND 95 DEGREE THRESHOLD.  PROBABILITIES OF 10...40...
70 PERCENT WILL BE CONTOURED ON EACH MAP.  THE TEXT PRODUCT WILL
INCLUDE THE DAILY AVERAGE HEAT INDEX FORECAST VALUE AS WELL AS
THE PROBABILITY OF THE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 70/ 75/ 80/ 85/ 90/
95/ 100/ AND 105 DEGREES.

THE FOLLOWING WMO HEADINGS/AWIPS IDS ARE FOR GRAPHICS COVERING
THE CONUS.

     DAY  HI   WMO HEADING    AWIPS ID
     3    85   PTNK98 KWNH    RBG85
     3    90   PTNK98 KWNH    RBG90
     3    95   PTNK98 KWNH    RBG95
     4    85   PTNM98 KWNH    RBG85
     4    90   PTNM98 KWNH    RBG90
     4    95   PTNM98 KWNH    RBG95
     5    85   PTNO98 KWNH    RBG85
     5    90   PTNO98 KWNH    RBG90
     5    95   PTNO98 KWNH    RBG95
     6    85   PTNQ98 KWNH    RBG85
     6    90   PTNQ98 KWNH    RBG90
     6    95   PTNQ98 KWNH    RBG95
     7    85   PTNS98 KWNH    RBG85
     7    90   PTNS98 KWNH    RBG90
     7    95   PTNS98 KWNH    RBG95

THE PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX FORECAST TEXT BULLETIN IS SENT IN
TWO PARTS/EAST AND WEST/:

     AREA   WMO HEADING    AWIPS ID
     EASTFMUS23 KWNH    PRBNHI
     WESTFMUS24 KWNH    PRBNHI

IN ADDITION...HPC DISSEMINATES THESE PRODUCTS AND RELATED
INFORMATION ON THE INTERNET.  THE URL ADDRESS AVAILABLE MAY 1 IS
/USE LOWER CASE/:

          HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX/

THE FOLLOWING 3- TO 7-DAY CPC HEAT FORECASTS WILL BE DISCONTINUED
AND BE REPLACED BY THE REVISED DAY-TO-DAY FORMAT /FOR DAYS 3 TO
7/ FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...BEGINNING MAY
1 2002.

     ...DISCONTINUED...

     AVG. HEAT INDEX     WMO HEADER     AWIPS ID
     CRITERIA A          PTAM90 KWNC    RBGHI1
     /85F+ FOR 3+DAYS/
     CRITERIA B          PTAM95 KWNC    RBGHI2
     /90F+ FOR 2+DAYS/
     CRITERIA C          PTAM00 KWNC    RBGHI3
     /95F+ FOR 1+DAY/
     STATION PLOT        PTNK98 KWNC    RBGHX3
     /MAX HEAT INDEX/
     ...DISCONTINUED...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT ANY OF THESE CHANGES...YOU CAN
CONTACT:

     KEVIN MCCARTHY...DEPUTY DIRECTOR
     NCEP HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
     PHONE:  301-763-8000 X7304
     EMAIL:  KEVIN.MCCARTHY@xxxxxxxx

          OR

     DAVID REYNOLDS...CHIEF
     NCEP/HPC FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH
     PHONE:   301-763-8000 X7317
     EMAIL:  DAVID.REYNOLDS@xxxxxxxx

THIS NOTICE AND OTHER SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE ON THE INTERNET
AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

              WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

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