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NOUS41 KWBC 051921
PNSWSH
PUBLIC INFO. STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 01-14...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
310 PM EDT THU APR 5 2001
TO: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ EMPLOYEES...NOAAPORT
SUBSCRIBERS...FAMILY OF SERVICES SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA
WEATHER WIRE SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS...AND OTHER NWS
CUSTOMERS
FROM: ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION
SUBJECT: BASE PERIOD MEANS /BPM/ FOR CLIMATE OUTLOOKS TO BE
UPDATED FROM 1961-1990 MEANS TO 1971-2000 MEANS...
EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...NEW EFFECTIVE DATE...
...UPDATED TO CHANGE EFFECTIVE DATE FROM APRIL 12 TO MAY 17. ALL
OTHER INFORMATION REMAINS THE SAME. NOTE IN PARAGRAPH BELOW THAT
NEW 1971-2000 BPM DATA IS NOW ON THE WEB...
EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
/CPC/ WILL BEGIN USING THEIR 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS /BPM/
FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS LISTED BELOW. THE 1971-2000
BPMS WILL REPLACE THE 1961-1990 BPMS. THE NEW 1971-2000 BPMS ARE
AVAILABLE ON CPC/S WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.
CLICK ON OUTLOOKS LINK. THEN SCROLL DOWN TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD
MEANS LINK AND CLICK AGAIN. OR GO DIRECTLY TO 1971-2000 BPMS AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/NEW_CLIMATES/
USING LOWER CASE.
THESE CPC BPMS ARE INTENDED FOR CPC/S CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ONLY. THE
OFFICIAL 1971-2000 CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL CLIMATE DATA CENTER /NCDC/...WILL BE USED IN THE DAILY
AND MONTHLY STATION CLIMATE REPORTS ISSUED BY NWS WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES /WFO/ STARTING JANUARY 1 2002. SEE QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS BELOW THE PRODUCT LISTS FOR MORE INFORMATION EXPLAINING
CPC BPMS AND NCDC NORMALS. INFORMATIONAL NOTES ON HEATING AND
COOLING DEGREE DAYS FOLLOW THE QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS.
...LISTS CPC OUTLOOKS USING BPMS AS REFERENCE...
LIST 1 OF 4. 6- TO 10-DAY AND 8- TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK PRODUCTS
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID OUTLOOK CHARTS/ISSUED DAILY
AROUND 400 PM EASTERN TIME/
PEIY47 KWBC RBG96E 6- TO 10-DAY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
PNNT51 KWBC RBG96T 6- TO 10-DAY TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY
PHBV50 KWBC RBG96H 6- TO 10-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS
PHNT50 KWNC RBG96C 6- TO 10-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY
PETT00 KWNC RBG98E 8- TO 14-DAY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
PTTU98 KWNC RBG98T 8- TO 14-DAY TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY
PHTT50 KWNC RBG98H 8- TO 14-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS
PHTT51 KWNC RBG98C 8- TO 14-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY
NOTE: THE TEXTUAL PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR THE 6- TO 10-DAY AND
8- TO 14-DAY OUTLOOKS IS ISSUED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CONCURRENTLY WITH THE OUTLOOK CHARTS UNDER WMO HEADING FXUS06
KWBC...PIL ID NMCPMDMRD...AND AWIPS ID PMDMRD.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LIST 2 OF 4. MONTHLY /30-DAY/ OUTLOOK /EXCEPT HAWAII/...ISSUED
ONCE A MONTH ON A THURSDAY AROUND MID MONTH ABOUT 300 PM EASTERN
TIME.
MONTHLY OUTLOOK CHARTS
LEAD TIME PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
0.5 MONTH PEIV98 KWNC RBG9ME PTIV98 KWNC RBG9MT
NOTE: A TEXTUAL PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK IS
ISSUED CONCURRENTLY UNDER WMO HEADING OF FXUS07 KWBC...PIL ID
NMCPMD30D...AND AWIPS ID PMD30D.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LIST 3 OF 4. SEASONAL /3-MONTH/ OUTLOOKS /EXCEPT HAWAII/...ISSUED
ONCE A MONTH ON A THURSDAY AROUND MID MONTH ABOUT 300 PM EASTERN
TIME.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK CHARTS
LEAD TIME PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
0.5 MONTH PEIW01 KWBC RBGLPA PTIW01 KWBC RBGLTA
1.5 MONTH PEIW02 KWBC RBGLPB PTIW02 KWBC RBGLTB
2.5 MONTH PEIW03 KWBC RBGLPC PTIW03 KWBC RBGLTC
3.5 MONTH PEIW04 KWBC RBGLPD PTIW04 KWBC RBGLTD
4.5 MONTH PEIW05 KWBC RBGLPE PTIW05 KWBC RBGLTE
5.5 MONTH PEIW06 KWBC RBGLPF PTIW06 KWBC RBGLTF
6.5 MONTH PEIW07 KWBC RBGLPG PTIW07 KWBC RBGLTG
7.5 MONTH PEIW08 KWBC RBGLPH PTIW08 KWBC RBGLTH
8.5 MONTH PEIW09 KWBC RBGLPI PTIW09 KWBC RBGLTI
9.5 MONTH PEIW10 KWBC RBGLPJ PTIW10 KWBC RBGLTJ
10.5 MONTH PEIW11 KWBC RBGLPK PTIW11 KWBC RBGLTK
11.5 MONTH PEIW12 KWBC RBGLPL PTIW12 KWBC RBGLTL
12.5 MONTH PEIW13 KWBC RBGLPM PTIW13 KWBC RBGLTM
NOTE: A TEXTUAL PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
IS ISSUED CONCURRENTLY UNDER WMO HEADING OF FXUS05 KWBC...PIL ID
NMCPMD90D...AND AWIPS ID PMD90D.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LIST 4 OF 4. HAWAIIAN MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS...ISSUED ONCE
A MONTH ON A THURSDAY AROUND MID MONTH ABOUT 300 PM EASTERN TIME.
THE TEXTUAL HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK/CLIMATOLOGICAL BULLETIN IS UNDER
WMO HEADING FXHW40 KWBC...PIL ID NMCPMDHCO...AND AWIPS ID PMDHCO.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
...QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ON CPC BPMS VS. NCDC NORMALS...
Q1 OF 3 - WHY DOES CPC COMPUTE THEIR OWN BASE PERIOD MEANS /BPMS/
RATHER THAN USE NCDC'S OFFICIAL NORMALS?
A: CPC COMPUTES SEVERAL STATISTICS (EG. 500 MB HEIGHTS...
TERCILES OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CLASSES
/ABOVE...NEAR NORMAL OR MEDIAN...AND BELOW/ FOR USE IN THE
CLIMATE OUTLOOKS WHICH ARE NOT PART OF THE NORMALS PROCESS AT
NCDC. ALSO...CPC COMPUTES AREAL INFORMATION FOR AREAS OTHER THAN
NCDC/S DESIGNATED CLIMATE REGIONS.
Q2 OF 3 - WHY DOES NCDC NEED MORE TIME TO PREPARE AND DISTRIBUTE
ITS OFFICIAL NORMALS THAN CPC DOES FOR ITS BPMS?
A: CPC DOES NOT REQUIRE THE PRECISION THAT NCDC DOES FOR THE
OFFICIAL NORMALS. CPC/S APPLICATION IS NOT AS SENSITIVE TO SUCH
FACTORS AS STATION MOVES AND INSTRUMENT CHANGES...WHICH ARE
VERY IMPORTANT TO OTHER USERS SUCH AS THE WEATHER DERIVATIVE
INDUSTRY AND UTILITIES. NCDC PROCESSES ALL DATA THROUGH
EXTENSIVE QUALITY CONTROL...CORRECTS DATA FOR DISCONTINUITIES
SUCH AS STATION MOVES AND INSTRUMENT CHANGES...AND FILLS IN
MISSING DATA.
Q3 OF 3 - WILL CPC USE NCDC NORMALS AFTER JANUARY 1 2002 TO
ADJUST ITS ANY OF ITS BPMS?
A: CPC IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ITS BPMS SINCE THE
SMALL DIFFERENCES WOULD GENERALLY BE INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR CPC/S
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY SITUATION THAT THIS
IS NOT THE CASE...ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE.
...NOTES ON HEATING AND COOLING DEGREE DAYS /HDD AND CDD/...
NOTE 1 OF 2 - CPC/S WEEKLY POPULATION WEIGHTED HDD AND CDD
OUTLOOKS WILL USE NCDC/S 1971-2000 NORMAL HDD AND CDD INFORMATION
AND 2000 CENSUS DATA BEGINNING IN JANUARY 2002. THE CPC HDD/CDD
OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED ONLY ON THE CPC WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/CDUS/DE
GREE_DAYS/DDF_INDEX.HTML - /LOWER CASE/.
USE OF NCDC 1971-2000 CDD/HDD NORMALS AND 2000 CENSUS DATA FOR
CPC POPULATION WEIGHTED HDD/CDD OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT THE START
OF THE COOLING AND HEATING SEASONS RESPECTIVELY /JANUARY 1 2002
AND JULY 1 2002 RESPECTIVELY/. THIS AVOIDS DISCONTINUITIES IN USE
OF CDD/HDD NORMALS AND CENSUS DATA DURING THE HDD AND CDD
SEASONS.
NOTE 2 OF 2 - LIKEWISE...USE OF NCDC 1971-2000 CDD/HDD NORMALS
FOR STATION DAILY AND MONTHLY CLIMATE REPORTS ISSUED BY WFOS WILL
BEGIN AT THE START OF THE COOLING AND HEATING SEASONS
RESPECTIVELY /JANUARY 1 2002 AND JULY 1 2002 RESPECTIVELY/ TO
AVOID DISCONTINUITIES IN USE OF CDD/HDD NORMALS DURING THE HDD
AND CDD SEASONS.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...EITHER SEND E-MAIL OVER THE INTERNET
TO THE PUBLIC LIAISON AT
HTTP://WWW.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MAIL_LIAISON.SHTML /LOWER CASE/
OR WRITE TO
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
OPERATIONS BRANCH - W/NP53
WORLD WEATHER BUILDING
5200 AUTH ROAD
CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746
THIS NOTICE AND OTHER SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT /USE LOWER CASE/:
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
END
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