20010316: climate outlooks-ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC (fwd)

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917
NOUS41 KWBC 161557
PNSWSH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 01-14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EST FRI MAR 16 2001

TO:       FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER
          WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL
          WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...NWS
          EMPLOYEES

FROM:     ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
          CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION

SUBJECT:  BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR CLIMATE OUTLOOKS TO BE UPDATED
          FROM 1961-1990 MEANS TO 1971-2000 MEANS...EFFECTIVE
          THURSDAY APRIL 12 2001

EFFECTIVE THURSDAY APRIL 12 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
/CPC/ WILL BEGIN USING THEIR 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS /BPM/
FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS LISTED BELOW.  THE 1971-2000
BPMS WILL REPLACE THE 1961-1990 BPMS. THE NEW 1971-2000 BPMS WILL
BE AVAILABLE ON CPC/S WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
/USE LOWER CASE/ BY AROUND MARCH 23 2001.

THESE CPC BPMS ARE INTENDED FOR CPC/S CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ONLY.  THE
OFFICIAL 1971-2000 CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL CLIMATE DATA CENTER /NCDC/...WILL BE USED IN THE DAILY
AND MONTHLY STATION CLIMATE REPORTS ISSUED BY NWS WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES /WFO/ STARTING JANUARY 1 2002.  SEE QUESTIONS
AND ANSWERS BELOW THE PRODUCT LISTS FOR MORE INFORMATION
EXPLAINING CPC BPMS AND NCDC NORMALS.  INFORMATIONAL NOTES ON
HEATING AND COOLING DEGREE DAYS FOLLOW THE QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS.


...LISTS OF CPC OUTLOOKS USING BPMS AS REFERENCE...

LIST 1 OF 4:  6- TO 10-DAY AND 8- TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK PRODUCTS

                          OUTLOOK CHARTS/ISSUED DAILY
 WMO HEADING    AWIPS ID  AROUND 400 PM EASTERN TIME/

 PEIY47 KWBC    RBG96E    6- TO 10-DAY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
 PNNT51 KWBC    RBG96T    6- TO 10-DAY TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY
 PHBV50 KWBC    RBG96H    6- TO 10-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS
 PHNT50 KWNC    RBG96C    6- TO 10-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY
 PETT00 KWNC    RBG98E    8- TO 14-DAY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
 PTTU98 KWNC    RBG98T    8- TO 14-DAY TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY
 PHTT50 KWNC    RBG98H    8- TO 14-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS
 PHTT51 KWNC    RBG98C    8- TO 14-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY

NOTE: THE TEXTUAL PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR THE 6- TO 10-DAY AND
8- TO 14-DAY OUTLOOKS IS ISSUED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CONCURRENTLY WITH THE OUTLOOK CHARTS UNDER WMO HEADING
FXUS06 KWBC...PIL ID NMCPMDMRD...AND AWIPS ID PMDMRD.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LIST 2 OF 4:  MONTHLY /30-DAY/ OUTLOOK /EXCEPT HAWAII/...ISSUED
ONCE A MONTH ON A THURSDAY AROUND MID MONTH ABOUT 300 PM EASTERN
TIME.

                    MONTHLY OUTLOOK CHARTS

 LEAD TIME      PRECIPITATION            TEMPERATURE
                WMO HEADING  AWIPS ID    WMO HEADING  AWIPS ID
 0.5 MONTH      PEIV98 KWNC  RBG9ME      PTIV98 KWNC  RBG9MT

NOTE: A TEXTUAL PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK IS
ISSUED CONCURRENTLY UNDER WMO HEADING OF FXUS07 KWBC...
PIL ID NMCPMD30D...AND AWIPS ID PMD30D.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LIST 3 OF 4:  SEASONAL /3-MONTH/ OUTLOOKS /EXCEPT
HAWAII/...ISSUED ONCE A MONTH ON A THURSDAY AROUND MID MONTH
ABOUT 300 PM EASTERN TIME.

                    SEASONAL OUTLOOK CHARTS

  LEAD TIME     PRECIPITATION            TEMPERATURE
                WMO HEADING  AWIPS ID    WMO HEADING  AWIPS ID
  0.5 MONTH     PEIW01 KWBC  RBGLPA      PTIW01 KWBC  RBGLTA
  1.5 MONTH     PEIW02 KWBC  RBGLPB      PTIW02 KWBC  RBGLTB
  2.5 MONTH     PEIW03 KWBC  RBGLPC      PTIW03 KWBC  RBGLTC
  3.5 MONTH     PEIW04 KWBC  RBGLPD      PTIW04 KWBC  RBGLTD
  4.5 MONTH     PEIW05 KWBC  RBGLPE      PTIW05 KWBC  RBGLTE
  5.5 MONTH     PEIW06 KWBC  RBGLPF      PTIW06 KWBC  RBGLTF
  6.5 MONTH     PEIW07 KWBC  RBGLPG      PTIW07 KWBC  RBGLTG
  7.5 MONTH     PEIW08 KWBC  RBGLPH      PTIW08 KWBC  RBGLTH
  8.5 MONTH     PEIW09 KWBC  RBGLPI      PTIW09 KWBC  RBGLTI
  9.5 MONTH     PEIW10 KWBC  RBGLPJ      PTIW10 KWBC  RBGLTJ
 10.5 MONTH     PEIW11 KWBC  RBGLPK      PTIW11 KWBC  RBGLTK
 11.5 MONTH     PEIW12 KWBC  RBGLPL      PTIW12 KWBC  RBGLTL
 12.5 MONTH     PEIW13 KWBC  RBGLPM      PTIW13 KWBC  RBGLTM

NOTE: A TEXTUAL PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
IS ISSUED CONCURRENTLY UNDER WMO HEADING OF FXUS05 KWBC...
PIL ID NMCPMD90D...AND AWIPS ID PMD90D.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LIST 4 OF 4:  HAWAIIAN MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS...ISSUED
ONCE A MONTH ON A THURSDAY AROUND MID MONTH ABOUT 300 PM EASTERN
TIME.

THE TEXTUAL HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK/CLIMATOLOGICAL BULLETIN IS ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADING FXHW40 KWBC...PIL ID NMCPMDHCO...AND
AWIPS ID PMDHCO.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

...QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ON CPC BPMS VS. NCDC NORMALS...

Q1 OF 3 - WHY DOES CPC COMPUTE THEIR OWN BASE PERIOD MEANS /BPMS/
RATHER THAN USE NCDC'S OFFICIAL NORMALS?

A:  CPC COMPUTES SEVERAL STATISTICS (E.G. 500 MB HEIGHTS...
TERCILES OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CLASSES
/ABOVE...NEAR NORMAL OR MEDIAN...AND BELOW/ FOR USE IN THE
CLIMATE OUTLOOKS WHICH ARE NOT PART OF THE NORMALS PROCESS AT
NCDC.  ALSO...CPC COMPUTES AREAL INFORMATION FOR AREAS OTHER THAN
NCDC/S DESIGNATED CLIMATE REGIONS.

Q2 OF 3 - WHY DOES NCDC NEED MORE TIME TO PREPARE AND DISTRIBUTE
ITS OFFICIAL NORMALS THAN CPC DOES FOR ITS BPMS?

A:  CPC DOES NOT REQUIRE THE PRECISION THAT NCDC DOES FOR THE
OFFICIAL NORMALS.  CPC/S APPLICATION IS NOT AS SENSITIVE TO SUCH
FACTORS AS STATION MOVES AND INSTRUMENT CHANGES...WHICH ARE
VERY IMPORTANT TO OTHER USERS SUCH AS THE WEATHER DERIVATIVE
INDUSTRY AND UTILITIES.  NCDC PROCESSES ALL DATA THROUGH
EXTENSIVE QUALITY CONTROL...CORRECTS DATA FOR DISCONTINUITIES
SUCH AS STATION MOVES AND INSTRUMENT CHANGES...AND FILLS IN
MISSING DATA.

Q3 OF 3 - WILL CPC USE NCDC NORMALS AFTER JANUARY 1 2002 TO
ADJUST ANY OF ITS BPMS?

A: CPC IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ITS BPMS SINCE THE
SMALL DIFFERENCES WOULD GENERALLY BE INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR CPC/S
OUTLOOK PURPOSES.  HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY SITUATION THAT THIS
IS NOT THE CASE...ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE.

...NOTES ON HEATING AND COOLING DEGREE DAYS /HDD AND CDD/...

NOTE 1 OF 2 - CPC/S WEEKLY POPULATION WEIGHTED HDD AND CDD
OUTLOOKS WILL USE NCDC/S 1971-2000 NORMAL HDD AND CDD INFORMATION
AND 2000 CENSUS DATA BEGINNING IN JANUARY 2002. THE CPC HDD/CDD
OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED ONLY ON THE CPC WEB SITE AT /USE LOWER CASE/:

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/CDUS/
DEGREE_DAYS/DDF_INDEX.HTML

USE OF NCDC 1971-2000 CDD/HDD NORMALS AND 2000 CENSUS DATA FOR
CPC POPULATION WEIGHTED HDD/CDD OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT THE START
OF THE COOLING AND HEATING SEASONS /JANUARY 1 2002 AND
JULY 1 2002 RESPECTIVELY/. THIS AVOIDS DISCONTINUITIES IN USE OF
CDD/HDD NORMALS AND CENSUS DATA DURING THE HDD AND CDD SEASONS.

NOTE 2 OF 2 - LIKEWISE...USE OF NCDC 1971-2000 CDD/HDD NORMALS
FOR STATION DAILY AND MONTHLY CLIMATE REPORTS ISSUED BY WFOS WILL
BEGIN AT THE START OF THE COOLING AND HEATING SEASONS
/JANUARY 1 2002 AND JULY 1 2002 RESPECTIVELY/ TO AVOID
DISCONTINUITIES IN USE OF CDD/HDD NORMALS DURING THE HDD AND CDD
SEASONS.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...EITHER SEND E-MAIL TO THE PUBLIC
LIAISON AT:

     HTTP://WWW.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MAIL_LIAISON.SHTML /USE LOWER CASE/

OR WRITE TO:

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
OPERATIONS BRANCH -  W/NP53
WORLD WEATHER BUILDING
5200 AUTH ROAD
CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746

THIS NOTICE AND OTHER SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT /USE LOWER CASE/:

     HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

END


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