Fire Behavior Forecast

Forecast NO. 02

NAME OF FIRE: SUWANNEE COMPLEX                     PREDICTION FOR: Night Shift

UNIT: FLORIDA DIV.OF FORESTRY              __                     SHIFT DATE: June 19 1998

                                                                                                          SIGNED: Larry Hood

                                                                                                                  Fire Behavior Analyst

TIME AND DATE

FORECAST ISSUED: 06/19/98 1600

WEATHER SUMMARY: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of thunderstorms through midnight. Temperature around 84 deg. at sunset decreasing to 73 by 0300. RH around 50% at sunset increasing to 75% by 2200 and to near 90% towards 0300. 20 foot winds West around 5 mph. Erratic and gusty winds to near 30 mph near any thunderstorms.

FIRE BEHAVIOR

SPECIFIC: The fire spread in the Southern Rough and Pine plantations will decrease significantly from the daytime. Expect maximum rates of spread of 10-12 chains per hour with 3-4 foot flame lengths.

Burning Operations:

The best opportunity for burning tonight will be when:

1. Thunderstorm development has dissipated so that the threat of downdrafts no longer exists. This will probably be sometime between 2100 - 2400 hours.

2. Relative humidities have recovered to 50% or higher. This will occur after sunset and will decrease to 75% by 2200 and 90% by 0300. The probability of spotting will decrease significanty with RH's above 60%.

3. Winds are a favorable direction and speed. Winds will be West to 10 mph and will decrease to West at 5 mph around 2000 hours. Winds should be light and variable after midnight.

It looks like the best window for burning will begin around 2100 hours and continue until shortly before sunrise.

SAFETY:

* The firing pattern and amount of heat generated by the firing operation will greatly affect the winds on the fire's edge.

* Watch for winds eddying along openings on roads and plow and dozer lines.