[nws-changes] 20110118: NAEFS-postponed-Fwd: ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC

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-------- Original Message --------

289
NOUS41 KWBC 181341
PNSWSH

Technical Implementation Notice 10-50, Amended
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
840 AM EST Tue Jan 18 2011

To:        Subscribers:
           -Family of Services
           -NOAA Weather Wire Service
           -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
           -NOAAPORT
           Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

From:      Timothy McClung
           Chief, Science Plans Branch
           Office of Science and Technology

Subject:   Amended: Changes to the North American Ensemble
           Forecasting System (NAEFS): Postponed

Amended to postpone this implementation for at least 30 days
pending further evaluation.  Notification will be sent when this
implementation is rescheduled.

Previously scheduled implementation for Tuesday, January 18,
2011, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
run will not take place. The National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) will not make modifications to the North
American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS) until a later
date.

The current NAEFS output is derived by combining the NCEP Global
Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Canadian Meteorological
Centers GEFS.  When announced, the global ensemble system run
by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center
(FNMOC) will also be included in the NAEFS.

The NAEFS output is disseminated only via the NCEP server.
Products are available for http and ftp download at the
following URLs:

http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gens/prod/
and
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/prod/

In addition to including the FNMOC data in the NAEFS ensemble
calculations, NCEP will also be modifying the output available
from the NCEP GEFS, CMC GEFS, and the NAEFS.  These
modifications include:

Adding the following 13 bias-corrected elements to the NCEP
GEFS and NAEFS output for all probabilistic products:
 10 hPa(mb) geopotential height
 10 hPa(mb) temperature
 10 hPa(mb) u component of wind
 10 hPa(mb) v component of wind
 50 hPa(mb) geopotential height
 50 hPa(mb) temperature
 50 hPa(mb) u component of wind
 50 hPa(mb) v component of wind
100 hPa(mb) geopotential height
100 hPa(mb) temperature
100 hPa(mb) u component of wind
100 hPa(mb) v component of wind
850 hPa(mb) vertical velocity

The directory location of the raw CMC GEFS data will be
changed.  Starting on a date to be announced in a future TIN,
the GRIB2 output for the individual member and ensemble means
and spreads will be online in the following directories, where
YYYYMMDD is the date and CC is the model cycle:

http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gens/prod/cmce.YYYYMM
DD/CC/pgrb2a
and
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/prod/cmce.YYYYMMD
D/CC/pgrb2a/

In addition, the following 28 variables will be added to the CMC
output:
 10 hPa(mb) geopotential height
 10 hPa(mb) temperature
 10 hPa(mb) relative humidity
 10 hPa(mb) u component of wind
 10 hPa(mb) v component of wind
 50 hPa(mb) geopotential height
 50 hPa(mb) temperature
 50 hPa(mb) relative humidity
 50 hPa(mb) u component of wind
 50 hPa(mb) v component of wind
100 hPa(mb) geopotential height
100 hPa(mb) temperature
100 hPa(mb) relative humidity
100 hPa(mb) u component of wind
100 hPa(mb) v component of wind
850 hPa(mb) vertical velocity
Convective inhibition (CIN 180-0 hPa)
Latent heat net flux
Sensible heat net flux
Downward shortwave radiation flux at surface
Downward longwave radiation flux at surface
Upward shortwave radiation flux at surface
Upward longwave radiation flux at surface
Upward longwave radiation flux at top of atmosphere
Volumetric soil moisture (0-10cm)
Water equivalent of accumulated snow depth
Snow depth (surface)
Soil temperature (0-10cm down)

Data delivery timing is not expected to be impacted by the
implementation. There will only be a minor increase in the data
volumes of existing files due to the addition of new variables.

A sample dataset for this NAEFS implementation is available at:

ftp://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/yzhu/1q2011

Specific information regarding the NAEFS and scientific
implementation is online at:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yzhu/html/imp/201012_imp.html

Once the model is running in parallel on the NCEP Central
Computing System, a consistent parallel feed of data will be
available on the NCEP server.  The parallel data will be
available via the following URLs:

http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gens/para
and
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/para

NCEP urges all users to ensure their decoders can handle changes
in content order, changes in the scaling factor component within
the product definition section (PDS) of the GRIB files, and
volume changes. These elements may change with future NCEP model
implementations. NCEP will make every attempt to alert users to
these changes before implementation.

For questions regarding these changes, please contact:

      Yuejian Zhu
      NCEP/Global Modeling Branch
      Camp Springs, Maryland
      301-763-8000 X 7052
      Yuejian.Zhu@xxxxxxxx

For questions regarding the dataflow aspects of these datasets,
please contact:

     Rebecca Cosgrove
     NCEP/NCO Dataflow Team
     Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
     301-763-8000 X 7198
     ncep.pmb.dataflow@xxxxxxxx

NWS National Technical Implementation Notices are online at:

   http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notif.htm

$$



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