[nws-changes] 20071109: upgrade to Short range ensemble modeling sys-: ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC]

[Linda Miller]

-------- Original Message --------

125 
NOUS41 KWBC 091850
PNSWSH

TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 07-89
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
150 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2007

TO:  FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER 
          WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS 
          WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS... 
          NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
          /NWS/ PARTNERS AND OTHER USERS...NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM:  PAUL HIRSCHBERG
          CHIEF...SCIENCE PLANS BRANCH
          OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY /OST/

SUBJECT:  UPGRADE TO SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELING SYSTEM: 
          EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 11 2007 

EFFECTIVE TUESDAY DECEMBER 11 2007...AT 1500 COORDINATED 
UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL 
PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELING 
SYSTEM /SREF/.

MODELING SYSTEM CHANGES:

- BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS WILL BE PRODUCED FOR ALL COMPONENTS/ 
  MEMBERS. EACH BIAS CORRECTION IS COMPUTED USING A DECAYING 
  AVERAGE APPROACH WHERE HIGHER WEIGHT IS GIVEN TO THE MORE
  RECENT FORECAST. A SEPARATE BIAS CORRECTION IS COMPUTED AT EACH 
  GRID POINT AND APPLIED TO EACH OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS, FOR EACH
  CYCLE...03Z...09Z...15Z AND 21Z...FOR EACH FORECAST LEAD TIME
  ...3 HOURLY OUT TO 87 HOURLY. ALL ENSEMBLE PRODUCT GENERATION
  USES THESE BIAS CORRECTED MEMBERS. THE APPLICATION OF THE
  PROCEDURE RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ERRORS AND BETTER
  BEHAVED PROBABILITIES.

- THE DOMAIN OF RSM MEMBERS WILL BE EXPANDED TO COVER MORE AREA
  WEST OF ALASKA COVERED BY THE OTHER MEMBERS.  

- FOUR NEW AVIATION PRODUCTS WILL BE ADDED: 
    -ICING
    -CLEAR AIR TURBULENCE
    -LOW LEVEL CEILING
    -FLIGHT RESTRICTION

- ADD BUFR OUTPUT FROM SIX WRF MEMBERS

A LIST OF BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS IS AVAILABLE. PLEASE SEE THE 
FOLLOWING WEBSITE FOR MORE INFORMATION: /USE LOWERCASE LETTERS/

HTTP://WWW.NCO.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PMB/CHANGES/SREF-
12_11_2007_BIASCORRECTEDFIELDS.HTML

PARALLEL DATA SETS FOR THE CURRENT PRODUCTS AND BIAS CORRECTED 
PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE NCEP FTP SERVER AT THE LINK BELOW.  
NCEP ENCOURAGES ALL USERS TO EVALUATE THESE DATA SETS TO ENSURE 
THAT THEIR SYSTEMS ARE PREPARED FOR THE UPCOMING CHANGE. /USE 
LOWERCASE LETTERS/

FTP://FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/SREF/PARA/SREF.YYYYM
MDD/HH

THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER /EMC/ HAS A PUBLICLY AVAILABLE 
WEB SITE WHICH CAN PROVIDE USERS MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING THE 
SREF MODELING SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALL OTHER NCEP MODELING SYSTEMS.
/PLEASE USE LOWERCASE LETTERS/

HTTP://WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

DATA DELIVERY TIMING/VOLUME/CONTENT CHANGES:

NOAAPORT DATA:

- AT THE CURRENT TIME...THE FOLLOWING DOMAINS ARE DISSEMINATED TO 
NOAAPORT/AWIPS USERS: CONUS...ALASKA...EASTERN PACIFIC.

- NO DATA CONTENT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.
- NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CONTENT DELIVERY TIME.
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DATA VOLUMES ARE EXPECTED.
- NO CHANGE IN PDS CONTENT IS EXPECTED.

NWS FTP SERVER:
/USE LOWERCASE LETTERS/ EXCEPT FOR THE SL...ST...MT AND CY. THE 
HH REFERS TO THE CYCLE: 03...09...15...21. THE YYYYMMDD REFERS TO 
THE CURRENT DATE.

FTP://TGFTP.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SL.US008001/ST.OPNL/MT.SREF_CY.HH/RD.YYY
YMMDD

- THE CONUS DOMAIN IS CURRENTLY DISSEMINATED.
- NO DATA CONTENT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.
- NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CONTENT DELIVERY TIME.
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DATA VOLUMES ARE EXPECTED.
- NO CHANGE IN PDS CONTENT IS EXPECTED.

NCEP FTP SERVER: /USE LOWERCASE LETTERS/

- AT THE CURRENT TIME...THE FOLLOWING DOMAINS ARE DISSEMINATED:
  
  FTP://FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/SREF/PROD

NCEP FTP SERVER USERS: CONUS...ALASKA...EASTERN PACIFIC
NWS FTP SERVERS USERS: CONUS

- NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CONTENT DELIVERY TIME.
- NO CHANGE IN PDS CONTENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE CURRENT DATA SETS
  WHICH ARE DELIVERED.
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DATA VOLUMES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
  DATA SETS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY DELIVERED.
- THE DIRECTORY STRUCTURE WILL CHANGE SIGNFICANTLY FOR THE SREF
  OUTPUT WHICH IS CURRENTLY DISSEMINATED. THE CYCLES WILL BE
  SEPARATED INTO THEIR OWN SUBDIRECTORIES INSTEAD OF RESIDING IN
  ONE SUBDIRECTORY. PLEASE SEE THE PARALLEL DATA SETS FOR AN
  EXAMPLE OF THE NEW DIRECTORY PATH. THE NEW FORMAT WILL BE AS
  FOLLOWS:/USE LOWERCASE LETTERS/

MAIN/PARENT DIRECTORY STRUCTURE:

  FTP://FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/SREF/PROD

CURRENT SUBDIRECTORY STRUCTURE
SREF.YYYYMMDD

NEW SUBDIRECTORY STRUCTURE
SREF.YYYYMMDD/HH/PGRB - INDIVIDUAL MEMBER GRIB1/GRIB2 DATA SETS
SREF.YYYYMMDD/HH/ENSPROD - MEAN/SPREAD/PROB GRIB1/GRIB2 DATA SETS

- NEW BIAS CORRECTED DATA SETS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE ON THE NCEP
  FTP SERVER. THESE DATA SETS WILL BE DELIVERED APPROXIMATELY 
  60 MINUTES AFTER THE NON-BIAS CORRECTED DATA SETS.

MAIN DIRECTORY STRUCTURE:
FTP://FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/SREF/PROD

SUBDIRECTORY STRUCTURE
SREF.YYYYMMDD/HH/PGRB_BIASC - INDIVIDUAL MEMBER GRIB1/GRIB2 DATA 
SETS
SREF.YYYYMMDD/HH/ENSPROD_BIASC - MEAN/SPREAD/PROB GRIB1/GRIB2 
DATA SETS

NCEP ENCOURAGES USERS TO ENSURE THEIR DECODERS ARE FLEXIBLE AND 
ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY HANDLE CHANGES IN CONTENT ORDER 
...PARAMETER FIELDS CHANGING ORDER...CHANGES IN THE SCALING 
FACTOR COMPONENT WITHIN THE PDS OF THE GRIB FILES AND ANY VOLUME 
CHANGES THAT MAY BE FORTHCOMING. THESE ELEMENTS MAY CHANGE WITH 
FUTURE NCEP MODEL IMPLEMENTATIONS. NCEP WILL MAKE EVERY ATTEMPT 
TO ALERT USERS TO THESE CHANGES BEFORE IMPLEMENTATION.

FOR QUESTIONS REGARDING THE SCIENTIFIC CONTENT OF THE MODELING 
SYSTEM...PLEASE CONTACT: 

     GEOFF DIMEGO
     NCEP/EMC 
     CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746
     PHONE: 301-763-8000X7221
     EMAIL: GEOFF.DIMEGO at NOAA.GOV

FOR QUESTIONS REGARDING THE DATAFLOW ASPECTS OF THESE DATA 
SETS...PLEASE CONTACT THE NCEP/NCO/PMB DATAFLOW HELP DESK EMAIL 
ADDRESS BELOW.

/USE LOWERCASE LETTERS FOR THE FOLLOWING PORTION OF THE EMAIL 
ADDRESS BELOW/: /ATAFLOW/

     EMAIL: NCEP.PMB.DATAFLOW at NOAA.GOV

THIS NOTICE AND OTHER TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICES ARE 
AVAILABLE ONLINE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: 

     HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

$$
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