20070507: gridded precip fcst-Fwd: ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC]

[Linda Miller]

-------- Original Message --------

858 
NOUS41 KWBC 071242
PNSWSH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...COMMENT REQUEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
842 AM EST MON MAY 7 2007

TO:       FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER
          WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY
          MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/
          SUBSCRIBERS...NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...NATIONAL WEATHER
          SERVICE /NWS/ PARTNERS AND OTHER USERS...AND NWS
          EMPLOYEES

FROM:     THOMAS GRAZIANO
          ACTING CHIEF...HYDROLOGIC SERVICES DIVISION

SUBJECT:  EXPERIMENTAL ENHANCEMENT OF GRIDDED EXCESSIVE 
          PRECIPITATION FORECAST PRODUCT TO INCLUDE GRIDDED DAY 2 
          AND DAY 3 FORECASTS

BEGINNING ON JUNE 5 2007 AT 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME 
/UTC/...ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS...THE NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL 
PREDICTION CENTER /HPC/ WILL BEGIN INCLUDING DAY 2 AND DAY 3 
FORECASTS WITH THE CURRENT DAY 1 GRIDDED EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION 
FORECAST PRODUCT AND WILL PROVIDE DRILL DOWN CAPABILITIES ON THE 
INTERNET GRAPHICS.

THE CURRENT DAY 1 GRIDDED EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES 
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION /WMO/ HEADER...MENC98 KWBC... 
AND AWIPS IDENTIFIER RBG94E AND IS PROVIDED ONLINE AT /USE LOWER 
CASE LETTERS/:

      HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESS_RAIN.SHTML

THE EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST GRAPHIC FOR DAY 1 DISPLAYS 
AREAS WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING FLASH 
FLOOD GUIDANCE ISSUED BY THE RIVER FORECAST CENTERS IS:

-SLIGHT /SLGT/: DEFINED AS THREAT IN THE RANGE 5 PERCENT TO LESS  
 THAN 10 PERCENT
-MODERATE /MDT/: DEFINED AS THREAT FROM 10 PERCENT TO LESS THAN 
 15 PERCENT
-HIGH: DEFINED AS THREAT 15 PERCENT OR GREATER. AREAS WHERE THE
 PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 5 INCHES ARE ALSO INDICATED.  

THE HPC ROUTINELY DISSEMINATES A DAY 1 GRIDDED EXCESSIVE 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST PRODUCT FOUR TIMES DAILY. THE VALID TIME 
PERIOD IS 30 HOURS FOR THE PRIMARY ISSUANCES AT 0600 UTC AND 1800 
UTC AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE INITIAL PERIOD ON THE UPDATE 
CYCLES AT 1500 UTC AND 0300 UTC. THE PRODUCT IS ISSUED ON AWIPS 
GRID 227 IN GRIDDED BINARY /GRIB2/ FORMAT AT 5 KILOMETER 
RESOLUTION.
  
THE EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST GRAPHIC FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 
DISPLAYS AREAS WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS 
EXCEEDING THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AVAILABLE AT TIME OF PRODUCT 
ISSUANCE IS SLIGHT...MODERATE...AND HIGH AS DEFINED ABOVE. THE 
RIVER FORECAST CENTERS DO NOT CURRENTLY ISSUE FLASH FLOOD 
GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 2 AND 3...SO AT THIS TIME THE PRODUCT WILL BE 
BASED ON THE DAY 1 FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

THE DAY 2 AND DAY 3 FORECASTS OF EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE 
DISSEMINATED TWO TIMES A DAY. THE VALID TIME PERIOD FOR THE DAY 2 
AND DAY 3 PRODUCTS WILL BE 1200 UTC TO 1200 UTC FOR THE 0600 UTC 
ISSUANCE AND 000 UTC TO 000 UTC FOR THE 1800 UTC ISSUANCE. FOR 
THE DAY 2 PRODUCT...THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION /WMO/ 
HEADER WILL BE MENS98 KWNH. FOR THE DAY 3 PRODUCT...THE WMO 
HEADER IS MENU98 KWNH.

THE DAY 2 AND DAY 3 EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST GRAPHICS 
WILL BE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

     HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESS_RAIN.SHTML

THE INTERNET GRAPHICS WILL PROVIDE DRILL DOWN CAPABILITIES AND 
LINKS TO LOCAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

USERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON THESE EXPERIMENTAL 
PRODUCTS BY NOVEMBER 15 2007 USING THE BRIEF SURVEY AND COMMENT 
FORM AVAILABLE ONLINE AT THE HPC EXCESSIVE PRECIPITIATION WEB 
PAGE OR AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: 

    HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=D2D3EPF  

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

     MARY MULUSKY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
     NATIONAL FLASH FLOOD PROGRAM COORDINATOR 
     PHONE:  301-713-0006 EXT. 169 
     E-MAIL: MARY.MULUSKY at NOAA.GOV

THIS NOTICE AND OTHER CURRENT NATIONAL PUBLIC INFORMATION 
STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

    HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

THIS NOTICE IS LISTED AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE...ABOVE THE SERVICE 
CHANGE NOTICE AND TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE BOX.

$$



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