20070215: NCEP global ensemble fcst system-14-20 members-Fwd: ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC]

[Linda Miller]

-------- Original Message --------

712 
NOUS41 KWBC 151211
PNSWSH

TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 07-11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
711 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007

TO:       FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER 
          WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS 
          WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER 
          NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND 
          PARTNERS...NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM:     PAUL HIRSCHBERG
          CHIEF...SCIENCE PLANS BRANCH
          OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY /OST/

SUBJECT:  NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM EXPANDS FROM 
          14 TO 20 MEMBERS: EFFECTIVE MARCH 27 2007

EFFECTIVE TUESDAY MARCH 27 2007...BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 
COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ MODEL CYCLE...NCEP WILL BEGIN 
PRODUCING SIX ADDITIONAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER GRIDDED DATA SETS PER 
CYCLE FROM THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM /GEFS/ 
OPERATIONAL JOB SUITE. THESE SIX NEW PERTURBATIONS WILL BE 
AVAILABLE WITH EACH OF THE FOUR DAILY CYCLES ADDING A TOTAL OF 
TWENTY-FOUR NEW PERTURBATIONS PER DAY. THESE DATA SETS WILL ONLY 
BE PROVIDED IN GRIB2 FORMAT AND WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE NWS 
TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY /NWSTG/ PUBLIC FTP SERVER AT /USE 
LOWER CASE LETTERS/: 

     FTP://TGFTP.NWS.NOAA.GOV

AS WELL AS ON THE NCEP PUBLIC FTP SERVER AT /USE LOWER CASE 
LETTERS/:

     FTP://FTP.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE INCREASED MEMBERS WILL IMPROVE THE OVERALL PROBABILISTIC 
FORECAST SKILL OF THE NCEP GEFS MODEL SUITE. HOWEVER...THE CHANGE 
IS NOT INTENDED TO IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD NOT DEGRADE THE OVERALL 
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST SKILL.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THESE CHANGES...PLEASE CONTACT: 

     JOE CARR 
     NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS
     CAMP SPRINGS MD
     PHONE: 301-763-8000 X7709
     EMAIL: JOE.CARR at NOAA.GOV
        OR
     JOHN WARD
     NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS
     CAMP SPRINGS MD
     PHONE: 301-763-8000 X7185 
     EMAIL: JOHN.WARD at NOAA.GOV

THIS AND OTHER NWS TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICES ARE AVAILABLE 
AT THE URL LISTED BELOW /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

     HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

$$


-- 
Linda Miller - lmiller at unidata.ucar.edu
Community Services, Unidata
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307-3000
303-497-8646 fax: 303-497-8690 


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