20060821: 3-mo temp outlook

[Linda Miller]

NOUS41 KWBC 211434
PNSWSH

SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 06-30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2006 

TO:      FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER 
         WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS 
         WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS... 
         NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
         /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM:    ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
         CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION

SUBJECT: NWS LOCAL 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS TO BECOME 
         OFFICIAL ON THIRD THURSDAY OF THE MONTH...
         EFFECTIVE SEPTEMBER 21 2006	

REFER TO: SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 06-24 TRANSMITTED JUNE 22 2006

EFFECTIVE THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 21 2006...THE NWS CLIMATE SERVICES 
DIVISION /CSD/ WILL OFFICIALLY ISSUE THE LOCAL 3-MONTH 
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS /L3MTO/ ON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE /WFO/ 
CLIMATE WEB PAGES ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF THE MONTH AT 830 A.M. 
EDT OR 1330 UTC /COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME/.  THESE WFO WEB 
PAGES ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: 

     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CLIMATE/L3MTO.PHP

THE NWS CSD THANKS ALL WHO PROVIDED PUBLIC COMMENTS DURING THE 
EXPERIMENTAL PHASE FOR THIS PRODUCT...WHICH WERE CONSIDERED IN 
THE DESIGN FOR UPCOMING OFFICIAL ISSUANCES. COMMENTS WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE ACCEPTED FROM THE WEBSITE SHOWN ABOVE AND WILL BE 
CONSIDERED IN PERIODIC WEBSITE REVIEWS FOR POSSIBLE REVISIONS.

CSD WILL ISSUE L3MTO CONCURRENTLY WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION 
CENTER /CPC/ NATIONAL 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS. L3MTO ARE 
TAILORED FROM CPC OUTLOOKS TO APPROXIMATELY 1200 SITE-SPECIFIC 
STATIONS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. /CONUS/ AND ALASKA. CSD WILL 
ISSUE L3MTO FOR APPROXIMATELY 10 STATIONS IN EACH WFO AREA OF 
RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN CONUS AND ALASKA. ADDITIONAL SITES AND 
CLIMATE PARAMETERS ARE PLANNED IN THE FUTURE. 

L3MTO INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE IN BOTH GRAPHIC AND TEXT 
FORMATS. FOR EACH STATION...THE L3MTO PRODUCT SUITE WILL CONSIST 
OF OUTLOOKS WITH LEAD TIMES FROM 0.5 MONTHS TO 12.5 MONTHS. FOR 
EXAMPLE...ON THE THIRD THURSDAY IN SEPTEMBER THERE WILL BE L3MTO 
FOR OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER...NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY... 
DECEMBER THOUGH FEBRUARY...AND SO ON TO OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER 
OF THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

AN L3MTO WILL CONSIST OF THREE TYPES OF OUTPUT:

	A. THREE CATEGORY OUTLOOK: CSD WILL EXPRESS THE OUTLOOK AS 
FORECASTED PROBABILITY /IN PERCENT/ THAT THE AVERAGE 3-MONTH 
TEMPERATURE WILL FALL INTO EACH OF THREE CATEGORIES: 
ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL. CSD REFERENCE TO NORMAL 
CLIMATOLOGY COMES FROM THE 30-YEAR /1971-2000/ MEAN 3-MONTH 
TEMPERATURE AND CATEGORY LIMITS. CSD DEFINES THE CATEGORIES AS 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EQUALLY LIKELY: E.G...THE TOP 10 CASES OF A 
THIRTY YEAR RECORD DEFINE THE ABOVE CATEGORY...THE MIDDLE 10 
CASES DEFINE THE NORMAL CATEGORY...AND THE BOTTOM 10 CASES DEFINE 
THE BELOW CATEGORY.

        B. RANGE OUTLOOK: CSD WILL EXPRESS THE EXPECTED RANGE OF THE 
AVERAGE 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE. EXPECTED RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE PRODUCED 
FOR FIVE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS OR LEVELS OF EXPECTED CHANCE: 99 
PERCENT...95 PERCENT...90 PERCENT...75 PERCENT...AND 50 PERCENT.

        C.  PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDENCE/NON EXCEEDENCE /POE...PONE/ 
OUTLOOKS: CSD WILL EXPRESS THE POE/PONE OUTLOOKS AS THE EXPECTED 
CHANCE OF THE AVERAGE 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE EXCEEDING OR NOT 
EXCEEDING A PARTICULAR PROBABILITY VALUE. POE AND PONE ARE 
PRODUCED FOR 19 VALUES: 99 PERCENT...98 PERCENT...97 PERCENT...96 
PERCENT...95 PERCENT...90 PERCENT...80 PERCENT...70 PERCENT...60 
PERCENT...50 PERCENT...40 PERCENT...30 PERCENT...20 PERCENT...10 
PERCENT...5 PERCENT...4 PERCENT...3 PERCENT...2 PERCENT...AND 1 
PERCENT.
 
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT:

     MICHAEL J. BREWER
     NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
     OFFICE OF CLIMATE...WATER...AND WEATHER SERVICES
     CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION - W/OS4
     1325 EAST-WEST HIGHWAY
     SILVER SPRING MD  20910
     /301/713-1970 EXT 123

THIS AND ALL OTHER NWS SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE POSTED AT /USE 
LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

  	HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

$$
NNNN

-- 
Linda Miller - lmiller at unidata.ucar.edu
Community Services, Unidata
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307-3000
303-497-8646 fax: 303-497-8690 


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