20020322: MRF/AVN model data: NWS Change Notices

>From:  Robert Mullenax <rmullenax@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Organization:  Universal Weather
>Keywords:  200203221710.g2MHA4a16666

Robert, Christian, et. al.,

The upcoming MRF replacement seems to be a popular topic today:

Robert wrote:

>I think this question has been answered before here, but I can't seem to
>find it if it has.
>With all of the changes going on with the AVN/MRF, what will be transmitted
>on NOAAPORT.
>I know the 384 hour data will not be on NOAAPORT, but will it still be the
>AVN 4 times a day out to 120 hours
>and then one MRF-like run out to 240?
>
>Thanks, and I apologize if this has been answered already.

Christian wrote:

>I just read again that MRF will be phased out.
>So, what will we receive through LDM?
>I would want to know which AVN grids will be send out in details (horizontal
>resolution, coverage, forecast hours, pqact.conf requests to get them) so that
>I can migrate all my MRF-related jobs to the AVN after the switch at the end of
>April.

Several items related to the MRF and AVN changes have been posted to
the nws-changes email list in the past couple of months.  These messages
are generated by the NWS and sent in the NOAAPORT NWSTG stream.  A short
"archive" of these messages are also maintained on an NWS web site:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/chgnot.shtml

The following is the set of notices that have been included in the
nws-changes list since the beginning of February:

  From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 07:55:16 -0700
  To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
  Subject: 20020211: model changes-(fwd)
  
  SUBJECT:          Changes to the NWS Production Suite
  
  
        A series of changes to the NCEP global model are planned for
  this Spring.  A tentative date of 5 March 2002 has been set to
  increase the forecast length of the global AVN model to 384
  hours.  This model currently produces a 126 hour forecast at 00Z
  and 12Z and an 84 hour forecast at 06Z and 18Z.
  
        A tentative date of 2 April 2002 has been set to replace the
  00Z MRF model with the 00Z AVN.  Look-alike grids for the MRF
  will be created and disseminated from the 00Z AVN.  These look
  alike grids will be available until 1 October 2002.
  
        Finally, in early May the resolution of the NCEP global
  model will be increased from T170L42 to T254L64.
  
        The NCEP quarterly backup test which had been rescheduled
  for 14 February 2002 has now been canceled.  A new test date in
  March will be announced as soon as it becomes available.
  
        Item 42, which had been withdrawn at 19Z on 1 February 2002
  due to a problem with processing graphics in the new G3 format,
  will be re-implemented at 12Z on 12 February 2002.
  
        On Tuesday, 5 February 2002, NCEP discontinued dissemination
  of all its AFOS products.  The production of these products on
  the NCEP supercomputer will be discontinued on 12 March 2002.
  
        On Tuesday, 19 March 2002, changes will be made to the BUFR
  data stored on the NCEP supercomputer.  Please see the bottom of
  this memo for more information.
  
        A list of the major model implementations planned for 2002
  can be found at:
  
        http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/NCO/PMB/changes
  
        As additional information about each implementation becomes
  available, links will be added on the change summary page.
  
  
        * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

  From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 07:15:32 -0700
  To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
  Subject: 20020225:  AVN-ADMIN NOTICE NOXX10 KWBC (fwd)
  
  300
  NOXX10 KWBC 252103
  DATA MGT MESSAGE 02-02.12
  
  TO  AWIPS/NOAAPORT USERS... FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/
  SUBSCRIBERS EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION
  NETWORK /EMWIN/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/
  CUSTOMERS... WAFS USERS... GTS USERS... NWS FAX CHART USERS
  
  FROM RTH WASHINGTON DATA MANAGEMENT
  
  EFFECTIVE MARCH 27... 2002... FORECAST DATA FROM ALL FOUR
  RUNS OF THE AVN MODEL WILL BE AVAILABLE OUT TO 384 HOURSON THE
  NWS FTP SERVERS.  THIS WILL NOT AFFECT MESSAGES SENT TO
  COMMUNICATIONS LINES OR BROADCASTS.   THESE RUNS WILL BE
  MADE AT T170L42 RESOLUTION /APPROXIMATELY 1 DEGREE
  HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION/ OUT TO 180 HOURS WITH OUTPUT IN 3-
  HOUR INCREMENTS. FROM 192 TO 384 HOURS THE RESOLUTION OF
  THESE RUNS WILL BE REDUCED TO T62L28 /APPROXIMATELY 2.5
  DEGREE HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION/ WITH OUTPUT IN 12-HOUR
  INCREMENTS.
  
  THE FOLLOWING DIRECTORIES ON THE NWS FTP SERVERS WILL BE
  AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE
  
  /SL.US008001/ST.OPNL/MT.AVN/UNDERSCORE/CY.HH/RD.YYYYMMDD/
  PT.GRID/UNDERSCORE/DF.GR1.
  
  THIS DIRECTORY CONTAINS TWO MAIN FILE TYPES... A 3-D GRIB FILE
  AND A GRIB FILE OF SURFACE FLUXES... PLUS THEIR INDEX FILES.
  AT 12 UTC A MUCH REDUCED GRID AT 2.5 DEGREE RESOLUTION IS
  ALREADY AVAILABLE OUT TO 120 HOURS... BUT THIS IS A
  RELATIVELY SMALL FILE COMPARED TO THE OTHERS.
  
  THE APPROXIMATE DATA VOLUME CHANGE IN THIS DIRECTORY ARE
  AS FOLLOWS
  
  CURRENTLY 1445 MB OF DATA ARE STORED AT BOTH 00 AND 12 UTC..
  AND 975 MB AT BOTH 06 AND 18 UTC FOR A GRAND TOTAL OF ABOUT
  4.8 GB PER DAY.  THIS IMPLEMENTATION WILL ADD 690 MB OF DATA
  AT BOTH 00 AND 12 UTC AND 1160 MB AT 06 AND 18 UTC WHICH WILL
  BRING THE TOTAL TO 2135 MB PER CYCLE OR 8.5 GB PER DAY.
  
  THE APPROXIMATE AVAILABILITY TIMES OF THESE NEW DATA SETS
  ARE AS FOLLOWS
  
  00 UTC
  FORECAST HOUR 129 - 384 AVAILABLE STARTING 0400 UTC WITH
  FINAL PRODUCT AVAILABLE 30 MINUTES LATER
  
  06 UTC
  FORECAST HOUR 87 - 384 AVAILABLE STARTING 0945 UTC WITH
  FINAL PRODUCT AVAILABLE 50 MINUTES LATER
  
  12 UTC
  FORECAST HOUR 129 - 384 AVAILABLE STARTING 1600 UTC WITH
  FINAL PRODUCT AVAILABLE 30 MINUTES LATER.
  
  18 UTC
  FORECAST HOUR 87 - 384 AVAILABLE STARTING 2145 UTC WITH
  FINAL PRODUCT AVAILABLE 50 MINUTES LATER.
  
  PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO PLANS TO DISSEMINATE
  THESE ADDITIONAL DATA ANYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE NWS AND
  NCEP FTP SERVERS.
  
  FOR FOS/NOAAPORT AND NON-AWIPS CUSTOMERS - IF YOU HAVE
  ANY QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS NOTICE... PLEASE CONTACT
  
  DATA MANAGEMENT
  LOWER CASE
  
  EMAIL  NWS.DM/AT SYMBOL//NOAA.GOV
  
  THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO POSTED ON THE NWS DATA
  MANAGEMENT CHANGE NOTICES WEB PAGE THE URL IS LISTED
  BELOW
  
  HTTP/COLON///WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/DATAMGMT/NOTICES.SHTML
  
  DATA MANAGEMENT TELECOMMUNICATION OPERATIONS CENTER
  RTH WASHINGTON SENDS

  From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 06:30:35 -0700
  To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
  Subject: 20020228: Global Fcst chgs-ADMIN NOTICE NOXX10 KWBC (fwd)
  
  066
  NOXX10 KWBC 281241
  DATA MGT MESSAGE 02-02.15
  
  TO  AWIPS/NOAAPORT USERS... FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/
  SUBSCRIBERS EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION
  NETWORK /EMWIN/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/
  CUSTOMERS... WAFS USERS... GTS USERS... NWS FAX CHART USERS
  
  FROM RTH WASHINGTON DATA MANAGEMENT
  
  SUBJECT UPCOMING CHANGES TO THE NCEP GLOBAL FORECAST
  SYSTEM
  
  IN LATE WINTER AND SPRING OF 2002... NCEP WILL BE MAKING
  SEVERAL CHANGES TO ITS GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM /GFS/.  THE
  NCEP GFS INCLUDES THE MRF... THE AVN... AND THE GLOBAL DATA
  ASSIMILATION SYSTEM /GDAS/... WHICH IS ALSO KNOWN AS THE
  FNL.
  
  CURRENTLY THE MRF RUN OF THE GFS IS RUN ONCE PER DAY
  AT 00 UTC.  THE RESOLUTION OF THE MRF IS T170L42 /75
  KM HORIZONTAL/ OUT TO 168 HOURS AND T62L28 /210 KM
  HORIZONTAL/ RESOLUTION FROM 180 TO 384 HOURS.  OUTPUT ARE
  MADE AVAILABLE FROM THE MRF IN 12-HOUR INCREMENTS.  THE
  AVN RUN OF THE GFS IS CURRENTLY RUN FOUR TIMES PER DAY AT
  T170L42 RESOLUTION.  AT 00 AND 12 UTC THE AVN PRODUCES
  FORECAST OUT TO 126 HOURS AND AT 06 AND 18 UTC IT PRODUCES
  FORECASTS TO 84 HOURS.  ALL FOUR RUNS OF THE AVN PRODUCE
  OUTPUT IN 3-HOUR INCREMENTS.  THE GDAS RUN OF THE GFS IS
  RUN FOUR TIMES PER DAY AT BOTH T170L42 AND T62L28
  RESOLUTIONS AND PRODUCES A NINE HOUR FORECAST THAT IS
  USED AS INPUT INTO THE NEXT RUN OF THE AVN AND FNL.
  
  THE FIRST CHANGE TO THE NCEP GFS HAS BEEN TENTATIVELY
  SCHEDULED FOR 5 MARCH 2002.  ON THIS DATE THE LENGTH OF
  ALL FOUR RUNS OF THE AVN WILL BE INCREASED TO 384 HOURS.
  THESE RUNS WILL BE MADE AT T170L42 RESOLUTION OUT TO 180
  HOURS WITH OUTPUT IN 3-HOUR INCREMENTS.  FROM 192 TO 384
  HOURS THE RESOLUTION OF THESE RUNS WILL BE REDUCED TO
  T62L28 WITH OUTPUT IN 12-HOUR INCREMENTS.  THERE ARE
  CURRENTLY NO PLANS TO DISSEMINATE THESE ADDITIONAL DATA
  ANYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE NWS AND NCEP FTP SERVERS.  PLEASE
  NOTE THAT THIS IMPLEMENTATION WILL NOT CHANGE ANY OF THE
  EXISTING AVN PRODUCTS ALREADY BEING DISSEMINATED FROM
  NCEP.
  
  AFTER THIS IMPLEMENTATION THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE NCEP GFS
  IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED FOR 23 APRIL 2002.  ON THIS DATE THE
  MRF RUN WILL BE DISCONTINUED.  NCEP WILL CREATE AND
  DISSEMINATE MRF LOOK ALIKE GRIB FILES FROM THE 00 UTC AVN
  RUN. THESE LOOK ALIKE GRIB FILES WILL BE CREATED FOR
  APPROXIMATELY 6 MONTHS WHICH WILL ALLOW USERS OF THESE
  PRODUCTS TIME TO TRANSITION TO THE EXTENDED AVN RUNS.
  NCEP WILL MAKE THESE LOOK ALIKE GRIB FILES AVAILABLE
  UNDER TEST DIRECTORIES ON THE NWS AND NCEP FTP SERVERS
  SHORTLY AFTER THE EXTENSION OF THE AVN IS IMPLEMENTED
  ON 5 MARCH 2002.
  
  FINALLY... PENDING CAFTII APPROVAL IN MARCH 2002... THE
  RESOLUTION OF THE GFS WILL BE INCREASED TO T256L64 /55 KM
  HORIZONTAL/ RESOLUTION.  THIS IMPLEMENTATION DATE HAS
  BEEN TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED FOR SOMETIME IN MAY 2002.
  MORE DETAILS ON THIS IMPLEMENTATION WILL BE FORTHCOMING
  AFTER CAFTII APPROVAL.
  
  NCEP APPRECIATES YOUR PATIENCE AS WE TRANSITION TO A
  BETTER GFS.
  
  FOR FOS/NOAAPORT AND NON-AWIPS CUSTOMERS - IF YOU HAVE
  ANY QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS NOTICE... PLEASE CONTACT
  
  DATA MANAGEMENT
  LOWER CASE
  
  EMAIL  NWS.DM/AT SYMBOL//NOAA.GOV
  
  THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO POSTED ON THE NWS DATA
  MANAGEMENT CHANGE NOTICES WEB PAGE THE URL IS LISTED
  BELOW
  
  HTTP/COLON///WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/DATAMGMT/NOTICES.SHTML
  
  DATA MANAGEMENT TELECOMMUNICATION OPERATIONS CENTER
  RTH WASHINGTON SENDS

  From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  Date: Mon, 04 Mar 2002 15:47:15 -0700
  To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
  Subject: 20020304: avn/mrf merger (fwd)
  
  To: Hualu Pan <Hualu.Pan@xxxxxxxx>
  Subject: avn/mrf merger
  
  All,
  
      There is a change to the AVN/MRF suite which will be transparent to
  all users in the beginning but is the first step of a process NCEP is
  taking to simplify the runs of the NCEP global model. What will happen
  for the 12Z run on 5 March 2002 is that the AVN runs will be extended to
  the same length as the MRF runs (out to 384 hours). While people who
  directly download the GRIB files will benefit immediately to this
  change, it will eventually affect all people who use the MRF forecasts.
  
      As the AVN forecasts have become more popular, there is more demand
  on the length of the forecast. We currently run the AVN to 126 hours at
  00Z and 12Z and to 84 hours at 06Z and 18Z. The weather service is going
  toward 4-times daily update of weather to seven days both for the NCEP
  service centers but also to the WFOs. Given that the MRF runs high
  resolution forecasts to seven days and low resolution to 16 days, the
  extension of the AVN beyond five days would make the MRF product
  duplicating the AVN for the most part (the low resolution part of the
  MRF uses much less resource compared to the high resolution part). We
  compared the AVN forecasts and the MRF forecasts for one whole year to
  determine if replacing the MRF forecasts with the AVN forecasts will
  degrade the forecast skill and we found that the skills of the two
  forecasts are practically the same. The only difference between the AVN
  forecast and the MRF forecast is that we wait 2 hours and 45 minutes for
  observations to arrive at NCEP before starting the AVN runs and 6 hours
  for the MRF. Since we start both forecasts with the best first guess
  from our global data assimilation system, this one-time difference in
  the cutoff time is not crucial to the forecast skill (the explanation
  would take too much space here). Furthermore, we will be issuing the 06Z
  AVN not long after the normal MRF forecasts are issued. The later
  forecasts are usually better than the earlier ones. For NCEP, once we
  start to issue AVN forecasts to seven days, it makes no sense to keep
  the MRF. It also makes little difference if we extend the AVN to 16 days
  in low resolution.
  
       Many people would ask if we have any skill credential to issue two
  week forecasts every six hours. Our strategy is to make these forecasts
  part of our ensemble strategy. Given that week-two forecasts can only be
  used as outlooks and the skill of any individual forecast is very low,
  we can only hope to use the ensemble strategy to provide information
  about the atmosphere regimes. Running all the ensemble at 00z or running
  them at 4 different times are just different strategies. Later this year
  when we get more computer resource, we plan to run the global ensemble
  four times daily with ten members per run (a doubling of our ensemble
  members).
  
       As for the MRF, we plan to stop running that in April. We will make
  all the files currently made by MRF from the 00Z AVN runs so users will
  not be inconvinienced and will have lots of time to change over to the
  AVN products.
  
      Finally, there has been a lot of confusions about the names AVN and
  MRF. By streamlining the forecasts to one single suite, we hope to
  reduce that confusion. We plan to rename our forecast suite from AVN to
  the Global Forecast System (GFS) at a later time and we will provide
  ample lead time before we make the change. Please feel free to write to
  me with any question you may have about this change.
  
  Hua-Lu Pan

  From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  Date: Fri, 15 Mar 2002 13:54:15 -0700
  To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
  Subject: 20020315: Global models
  
                                          March 15, 2002
  
  
  
  
  MEMORANDUM FOR:   Distribution E
  
  FROM:             John H. Ward
                    Chief, Production Management Branch
  
  SUBJECT:          Changes to the NWS Production Suite
  
  
  
       A series of changes to the NCEP global model are planned for
  this Spring.  On Tuesday, 5 March 2002, at 12Z the forecast
  length of the global AVN model was increased to 384 hours for all
  four cycles.  These extended forecast data are currently
  available on the NCEP ftp server at:
  
       ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/avn/prod/.
  
       On 27 March 2002 these data will become available on the NWS
  ftp server at:
  
       ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/.
  
       A tentative date of 23 April 2002 has been set to replace
  the 00Z MRF model with the 00Z AVN.  Look-alike grids for the MRF
  will be created and disseminated from the 00Z AVN.  These look-
  alike grids will be available through Fall 2002.  NCEP is
  currently making these look alike grids in parallel production.
  These data are available on the NCEP ftp server at:
  
       ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/mrf/para/.
  
       Finally, in early June the resolution of the NCEP global
  model will be increased from T170L42 to T254L64.
  
       The change in resolution of the RUC model from 40 km to 20
  km originally scheduled for Tuesday, 9 April at 12Z has been
  rescheduled for Tuesday, 16 April at 12Z.  There will be no
  change in the forecast grids being disseminated via AWIPS or
  Family of Services.  A Real-Time Test and Evaluation of the 20 Km
  RUC began on 8 March.  Test data is available on the NCEP ftp
  server at:
  
       ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/ruc/para/.
  
       Advertised changes to the BUFR data stored on the NCEP
  supercomputer originally planned for 19 March, have been
  postponed to 26 March to allow for further testing.  Please see
  the bottom of this memo for more information.
  
       The next NCEP quarterly backup test has been scheduled for
  the 00Z cycle on 4 April 2002 (1900 EST 03 April 2002).  If the
  weather situation prohibits this test, it will be attempted on 11
  April 2002.
  
       A list of the major model implementations planned for 2002
  can be found at:
  
       http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes
  
       As additional information about each implementation becomes
  available, links will be added on the change summary page.
  
       To unsubscribe from the JIF memo use the link provided at:
  
       http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/jifmemo/
  
       * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


This is all of the information that we (Unidata) have on the MRF/AVN
changes.

I hope that this helps...

Tom
--
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* Tom Yoksas                                             UCAR Unidata Program *
* (303) 497-8642 (last resort)                                  P.O. Box 3000 *
* yoksas@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx                                   Boulder, CO 80307 *
* Unidata WWW Service                             http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/*
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